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Summary for Hurricane Iota (AT1/AL312020)
2020-11-15 09:42:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 4:00 AM EST Sun Nov 15 the center of Iota was located near 13.1, -77.3 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 8
2020-11-15 09:42:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150842 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 ...IOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 77.3W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 77.3 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days until landfall occurs in Central America. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, pass near or over Providencia island on Monday, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Monday night. Reports from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Iota is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The latest data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches (200 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm). WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia by late tonight with tropical storm conditions expected beginning this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres this afternoon or evening with hurricane conditions possible there tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-11-15 09:42:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 150842 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) X(17) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 15(25) 5(30) X(30) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 1 4( 5) 23(28) 39(67) 14(81) 1(82) X(82) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) 16(52) 1(53) X(53) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 10(30) X(30) X(30) BLUEFIELDS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 8(19) 2(21) X(21) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN ANDRES 34 3 14(17) 27(44) 6(50) 3(53) X(53) X(53) SAN ANDRES 50 X 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) SAN ANDRES 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LIMON 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLON 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-11-15 09:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150841 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVIDENCIA * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 77.3W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 45SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 77.3W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 77.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.4N 78.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.7N 80.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.1N 81.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.3N 83.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.3N 84.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.2N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 0SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 13.9N 88.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 77.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 15/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Iota Graphics
2020-11-15 06:55:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 05:55:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 03:31:40 GMT
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