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Hurricane Eta Public Advisory Number 13A
2020-11-04 00:54:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 032354 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 700 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 83.7W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF ROSITA NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna de Perlas. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Eta was located near along the coast of Nicaragua near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 83.7 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) A faster westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through early Thursday. A turn toward the north, and then north-northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is now a strong category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening will continue as the center moves farther inland tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). During the past couple of hours, a sustained wind of 107 mph (172 km/h) and a gust to 135 (217 km/h) were measured at the Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall tracks within the Hurricane Warning area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area through tonight. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Sunday morning: Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm). Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Eta Graphics
2020-11-03 21:47:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Nov 2020 20:47:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Nov 2020 20:47:09 GMT
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Hurricane Eta Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-11-03 21:45:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 032045 TCDAT4 Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 After meandering just offshore of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua this morning, the eye of Eta began moving westward and is currently making landfall along the coast of Nicaragua about 15 n mi south of Puerto Cabezas. Visible satellite imagery has shown that the eye of Eta became larger as the hurricane completed an eyewall replacement. A blend of the earlier aircraft data and recent subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Eta remains an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, and is likely producing a very high storm surge and catastrophic damage. In addition, the slow-moving system is likely to produce torrential rains and inland flooding that will continue to be an extremely serious threat over the next couple of days. Once the eyewall is fully onshore, rapid weakening should begin, and Eta is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Wednesday, and become a tropical depression Wednesday night. Although it appears unlikely that the surface circulation will remain intact while Eta moves over Central America, most of the global model guidance indicates that the low-level vorticity center will emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea within 60-72 hours. At that time, the system is forecast to interact with an upper-level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and re-development later in the period appears likely with some strengthening by days 4 and 5. Due the interaction with the upper-level trough, the system is likely to have a more hybrid or subtropical structure late in the period. Eta appears to be moving westward at about 4 kt. A ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer the system westward to west- northwestward at a faster forward speed over the next couple of days. By late in the week, Eta or its remnants should turn northward, and then northeastward around the southeastern portion of the aforementioned trough. Although the 12z GFS and ECMWF models are in general agreement on the overall forecast scenario, there are large differences in how fast Eta accelerates northeastward. The NHC track forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus model which lies between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF solutions. There is still significant spread among the various global models and the ensembles, which results in a higher than normal level of uncertainty regarding the details of the track and intensity forecast later in the period. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected during the next few hours as Eta's eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua. 2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center has crossed the coast. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. 3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. 4. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall, interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Eta through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 13.8N 83.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 13.8N 84.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1800Z 14.1N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0600Z 14.7N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 15.4N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0600Z 16.3N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 17.0N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/1800Z 20.0N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 24.0N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-11-03 21:45:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 032045 PWSAT4 HURRICANE ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 11(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 2 1( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 2(14) 1(15) 1(16) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BLUEFIELDS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-03 21:45:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA MAKING LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 4:00 PM EST Tue Nov 3 the center of Eta was located near 13.8, -83.5 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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