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Hurricane Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-10-29 03:55:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 290255 TCMAT3 HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0300 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR ALL OF LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA * PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 88.7W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 210SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 88.7W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 89.9W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 35.5N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 39.5N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 180SE 180SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 42.5N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 240SE 240SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 88.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Zeta (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-29 03:05:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ZETA MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA WITH DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 the center of Zeta was located near 31.5, -88.7 with movement NE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane Zeta Update Statement
2020-10-29 02:02:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 536 WTNT63 KNHC 290102 TCUAT3 Hurricane Zeta Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 800 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 ...ZETA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE AND STRONG WINDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI... The National Ocean Service station at Waveland, Mississippi, recently reported sustained winds of 80 mph (129 km/h) and a wind gust of 104 mph (167 km/h). The National weather Service office in Slidell, Louisiana reported a minimum pressure of 975.9 mb inside the eye of Zeta during the past hour. SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.7N 89.6W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF SLIDELL LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...145 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven/Blake
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Summary for Hurricane Zeta (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-29 02:02:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ZETA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE AND STRONG WINDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI... As of 8:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 the center of Zeta was located near 30.7, -89.6 with movement NNE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Hurricane Zeta Public Advisory Number 17A
2020-10-29 00:57:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 282356 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 700 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 ...ZETA BATTERING SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 89.9W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF SLIDELL LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 89.9 West. Zeta is moving toward the north-northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) A faster north- northeastward motion is expected through tonight followed by an even faster northeastward motion on Thursday and an east-northeastward motion early Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move from southeastern Louisiana into southeastern Mississippi during the next hour or two, and then move across the southeastern and eastern United States later tonight and on Thursday. Radar and surface data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening will continue to occur while Zeta moves over the southeastern United States on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). Shell Beach Louisiana recently reported sustained winds of 81 mph (130 km/h) with a gust to 101 mph (163 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). A Weatherflow station at New Orleans Lakefront Airport recently reported a minimum central pressure of 973 mb (28.74 mb). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL border...7-11 ft MS/AL border to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...5-7 ft Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft Mobile Bay...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane or Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also likely beginning within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast in a few hours. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia this evening through early Thursday morning, and into the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia on Thursday. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday. RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf Coast to the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and eastward into the southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today through Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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