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Hurricane Zeta Graphics
2020-10-28 22:01:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Oct 2020 21:01:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Oct 2020 21:25:21 GMT
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Hurricane Zeta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-10-28 22:01:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 28 Oct 2020 21:01:17 GMT
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Hurricane Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-10-28 22:00:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 282100 TCDAT3 Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 The center of Zeta is in the Terrebone Bay area of Louisiana and is making landfall near Cocodrie. Somewhat surprisingly, Zeta has rapidly intensified this afternoon. Although the hurricane has been moving over marginally warm SSTs and relatively low heat content waters, it has intensified from 80 kt to 95 kt in about 6 hours. It is possible that this intensification can be at least partly attributable to a conducive interaction with with an upper-level trough located a few hundred miles to the west-northwest of Zeta. The 95-kt intensity estimate for Zeta is based on a blend of flight-level, SFMR and dropsonde winds from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Since the center will either be interacting with land or moving over land from this point, a weakening trend should begin tonight. The official intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS guidance, which should handle the exponential decay of wind seed for tropical cyclones moving over land. In 24 hours or so, the global models depict the system as being embedded in a front while it approaches the United States east coast. Thus the official forecast shows an extratropical cyclone at that point and beyond. After 48 hours, the models show the low becoming elongated and absorbed into the frontal zone. Zeta has turned toward the north-northeast and the forward speed is increasing, with the motion now 025/21 kt. The cyclone should accelerate north-northeastward ahead of a 500-mb trough through tonight. The system should then move even faster toward the northeast, ahead of the trough, and across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday. Post-tropical Zeta should move east-northeastward, in the mid-level westerlies, into the Atlantic Friday morning. The official track forecast follows the correct model consensus, HCCA, rather closely. Given Zeta's acceleration after landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well inland over the southeastern U.S. overnight and early Thursday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is beginning along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, with the highest inundation expected to occur somewhere between Port Fourchon, Louisiana, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, especially along the Mississippi coast. Overtopping of local, non-federal levee systems is possible within southeastern Louisiana outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System. 2. Extremely dangerous hurricane conditions are spreading across portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the southeastern Louisiana coast and will spread to the Mississippi coast this evening. Tropical storm conditions will spread into portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Alabama and far western Florida Panhandle coasts in the next few hours. 3. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and power outages, will spread well inland across portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia tonight and Thursday due to Zeta's fast forward speed. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday. 4. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, southern to central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 29.2N 90.6W 95 KT 110 MPH...ON THE COAST 12H 29/0600Z 32.8N 87.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1800Z 37.5N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 30/0600Z 41.0N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/1800Z 44.0N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Zeta Public Advisory Number 17
2020-10-28 22:00:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 282059 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 ...ZETA MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 90.6W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Zeta is making landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana. At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 90.6 West. Zeta is moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h) A faster north- northeastward motion is expected through tonight followed by an even faster northeastward motion on Thursday and an east-northeastward motion early Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will make a second landfall along the Mississippi coast this evening, and then move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening will occur while Zeta moves over the southeastern United States on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL border...7-11 ft MS/AL border to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...6-9 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...5-7 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...4-6 ft Mobile Bay...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane or Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions already occurring. Tropical storm conditions are also likely beginning within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia this evening through early Thursday morning, and into the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia on Thursday. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday. RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf Coast to the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and eastward into the southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today through Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-10-28 21:59:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 282058 PWSAT3 HURRICANE ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 2100 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS ...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 32(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) 40(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 3( 3) 30(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 37(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 17(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) RICHMOND VA 34 X 17(17) 22(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) RICHMOND VA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DANVILLE VA 34 X 51(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) DANVILLE VA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NORFOLK VA 34 X 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 55(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) GREENSBORO NC 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 55(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ATLANTA GA 34 3 86(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) ATLANTA GA 50 X 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 44 X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) COLUMBUS GA 34 28 30(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 73 2(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) MONTGOMERY AL 50 26 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) WHITING FLD FL 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) WHITING FLD FL 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) PENSACOLA FL 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOBILE AL 50 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) MOBILE AL 64 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GULFPORT MS 50 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) GULFPORT MS 64 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 50 42 X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 64 38 X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) PENSACOLA NAS 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) PENSACOLA NAS 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEESLER AB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEESLER AB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEESLER AB 64 31 X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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