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Hurricane Zeta Graphics
2020-10-28 09:58:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Oct 2020 08:58:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Oct 2020 09:25:26 GMT
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Hurricane Zeta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-10-28 09:57:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 28 Oct 2020 08:57:16 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Zeta (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-28 09:55:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT ZETA IS STRENGTHENING... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 the center of Zeta was located near 25.1, -91.8 with movement NNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane Zeta Public Advisory Number 15
2020-10-28 09:55:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 554 WTNT33 KNHC 280855 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT ZETA IS STRENGTHENING... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 91.8W ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of the Florida panhandle has been extended eastward to the Walton/Bay County Line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 91.8 West. Zeta is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected soon, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is expected to begin later this morning. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will approach the northern Gulf coast this morning and make landfall in southeastern Louisiana this afternoon. Zeta will move close to the Mississippi coast this evening, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday. Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast this morning, and Zeta is expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United States on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...5-7 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft Mobile Bay...4-6 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area this afternoon. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama this evening and tonight. RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains in advance of Zeta will continue to expand and move north from the central Gulf Coast today, eventually affecting the Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, the core of heavy rains near Zeta will track from the central Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon through Thursday evening. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-10-28 09:54:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 280854 PWSAT3 HURRICANE ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0900 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTA GA 34 X 6( 6) 36(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ATLANTA GA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 18(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 2 42(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 18(18) 13(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 40(40) 6(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 58(58) 6(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WHITING FLD FL 34 3 63(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) WHITING FLD FL 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 3 66(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) PENSACOLA FL 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 34 6 37(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) MOBILE AL 34 3 91(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) MOBILE AL 50 X 57(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) MOBILE AL 64 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GULFPORT MS 34 4 93(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GULFPORT MS 50 X 63(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) GULFPORT MS 64 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) STENNIS MS 34 6 88(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) STENNIS MS 50 X 56(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) STENNIS MS 64 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BURAS LA 34 37 62(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 50 1 83(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) BURAS LA 64 X 29(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GFMX 280N 890W 34 73 15(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) GFMX 280N 890W 50 6 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 890W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSON MS 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 14 70(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 1 37(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 94 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GFMX 280N 910W 64 68 12(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) BATON ROUGE LA 34 5 16(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MORGAN CITY LA 34 27 21(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) MORGAN CITY LA 50 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 6 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 930W 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 930W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JASPER TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 5 67(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KEESLER AB 34 10 88(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) KEESLER AB 50 X 75(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) KEESLER AB 64 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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