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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-10-07 22:47:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 072047 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 2100 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO * COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TO WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS * EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI... INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 89.5W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 89.5W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 88.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.2N 91.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.8N 92.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.7N 93.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.1N 92.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.6N 91.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.7N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 37.0N 85.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 89.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Delta Shuts 80% of US Gulf Offshore Crude Oil Production
2020-10-07 20:05:00| OGI
Oil producers had evacuated 183 offshore facilities in the U.S. GoM by Oct. 7 and halted nearly 1.5 million bbl/d of oil and 1.33 Bcf/d of natural gas production. The region accounts for about 17% of U.S. oil output.
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Summary for Hurricane Delta (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-07 19:51:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DELTA OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 the center of Delta was located near 21.8, -88.8 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 12A
2020-10-07 19:51:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 071751 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DELTA OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 88.8W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning along the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Punta Herrero to Tulum. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * High Island, Texas, to the Alabama/Florida border including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * San Luis Pass to west of High Island Texas * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Bay St. Louis Mississippi, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 88.8 West. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northwestward motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours. A north-northwestward motion is expected by late Thursday, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast within the hurricane watch area on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again. Some weakening is is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progreso. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Pecan Island, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Ocean Springs, MS to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft Sabine Lake...1-3 ft Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning area in the Yucatan peninsula during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas along the Gulf coast by late Thursday night or early Friday with hurricane conditions possible within the hurricane watch area by Friday morning. RAINFALL: Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea today. Swells will begin to affect portions of the northern and western Gulf coast on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Delta Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2020-10-07 17:46:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2020 15:46:21 GMT
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