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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-10-07 04:48:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 070247 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Delta has not intensified since earlier today. The central pressure has risen somewhat and the current intensity estimate, 115 kt, is probably generous based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the NOAA plane. Although the hurricane continues to have very deep convection near and over the center, the cloud pattern lacks well-defined banding features, and an eye is not evident on either geostationary or polar-orbiting satellite images. Surveillance data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft suggest that Delta's circulation does not extend as markedly into the upper troposphere as one would expect for a major hurricane. Given the current state of the system, not much strengthening seems likely before the center reaches northeastern Yucatan tomorrow morning. Some weakening is likely due to the interaction with land during the next 12-18 hours. Re-intensification over the southern Gulf of Mexico is still expected, but when Delta reaches the northern Gulf, lower oceanic heat content is likely to cause at least slight weakening. The official intensity forecast is somewhat above most of the model guidance, but not much different from the regional hurricane models, HWRF and HMON, over the northern Gulf. Fixes from the aircraft indicate a continued west-northwestward motion at just a slightly slower forward speed, 300/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning is basically unchanged from earlier today. Delta should move along and around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone centered just east of Florida for the next couple of days. Around 72 hours, the flow ahead of a shortwave trough over the south-central United States should cause the tropical cyclone to turn north-northeastward and move across the central Gulf coast late Friday or early Saturday. The official track forecast remains close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCA. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and potentially catastrophic wind damage are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. The potential for heavy rain, flash and possible minor river flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta moves inland later this week. 3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 19.5N 85.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 20.9N 87.1W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.8W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 08/1200Z 23.6N 91.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 25.0N 92.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 26.8N 92.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 29.0N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 33.0N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0000Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Delta (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-07 04:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DELTA CONTINUES HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME WINDS... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 the center of Delta was located near 19.5, -85.1 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Hurricane Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-10-07 04:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 070247 PWSAT1 HURRICANE DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 2(18) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 2(25) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 2(27) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) X(21) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 24(38) 2(40) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 27(49) 3(52) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 1(19) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 28(57) 2(59) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 1(25) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 20(55) 1(56) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23) X(23) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 30(37) 7(44) X(44) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 36(50) 3(53) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 27(67) 3(70) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 20(35) 1(36) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 1(20) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 58(75) 6(81) 1(82) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 6(46) X(46) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 5(26) X(26) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 30(74) 2(76) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 23(42) 2(44) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 1(25) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 53(55) 23(78) 1(79) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 21(47) 2(49) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 14(27) 1(28) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 29(56) 2(58) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) 1(29) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 49(50) 27(77) 1(78) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 24(47) X(47) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 16(27) 1(28) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 51(53) 26(79) 1(80) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 22(49) 1(50) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 16(28) 1(29) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 62(87) 4(91) 1(92) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 56(61) 7(68) X(68) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 6(46) X(46) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 1(25) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 24(51) 2(53) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) X(23) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 21(61) 1(62) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 16(34) 1(35) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 54(59) 14(73) 1(74) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 13(42) X(42) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) X(24) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 19(41) 1(42) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 16(41) 1(42) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 1(16) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 16(51) 1(52) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) X(23) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) 8(48) X(48) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) X(18) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 8(24) X(24) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 6(26) X(26) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 36(49) 5(54) X(54) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 3(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 1(11) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 12(45) 1(46) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 5(28) X(28) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 4(22) X(22) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 18(29) 3(32) X(32) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 8(22) 1(23) X(23) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MERIDA MX 34 2 44(46) 3(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) MERIDA MX 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MERIDA MX 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COZUMEL MX 50 91 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) COZUMEL MX 64 71 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) 1(29) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 24(51) 1(52) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 1(19) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 10
2020-10-07 04:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 070247 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DELTA CONTINUES HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 85.1W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Isle of Youth * Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico * Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 85.1 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next day or so. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula early Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). NOAA buoy 42056 recently measured a sustained wind of 65 mph (104 km/h) and a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, potentially catastrophic hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area later tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the warning area. RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Later this week, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches, over portions of the central Gulf Coast. These rainfall amounts may lead to flash, urban and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United States as well. SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-10-07 04:46:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 070246 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * ISLE OF YOUTH * PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO * DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DELTA. HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 85.1W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 85.1W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 84.5W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.9N 87.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.6N 91.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.0N 92.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.8N 92.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.0N 92.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 33.0N 89.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 36.0N 86.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 85.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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