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Hurricane Delta Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2020-10-07 17:16:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2020 15:16:09 GMT

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Hurricane Delta Graphics

2020-10-07 16:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2020 14:56:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2020 15:25:13 GMT

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 12

2020-10-07 16:55:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 721 WTNT41 KNHC 071455 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Satellite and surface observations show that Delta made landfall along the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula around 1030 UTC near Puerto Morelos. A WeatherFlow observing site at Puerto Morelos reported near calm winds and a minimum pressure of around 972 mb when the center passed that location. Another WeatherFlow site near Cancun reported peak sustained winds of 73 kt with a gust to 92 kt. Hurricane-force winds gusts were also reported at an observing site on Cozumel. Since landfall, Delta has moved across the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and is now about the emerge off the northern coast of the peninsula into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Assuming some weakening has occurred, the initial intensity has been set at 90 kt, but this could be a little generous. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Delta early this afternoon. A NOAA P-3 aircraft has been preforming a Tail Doppler Radar mission this morning. Once Delta moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico, warm waters and expected low vertical wind shear conditions are expected to allow for re-strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. After 48 hours, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters over the northern Gulf are likely to induce some weakening. The intensity guidance has trended downward this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Delta, however is still expected to regain major hurricane status and the wind field is likely to grow in size during its approach to the northern Gulf coast, which will increase the storm surge and wind threats. Regardless of Delta's landfall intensity, life-threatening storm surge and strong winds are likely over a large portion of the northwestern and northern Gulf coast, which has necessitated the issuance of Storm Surge, Hurricane, and Tropical Storm watches for portions of that area. Delta is moving northwestward or 305/15 kt. The hurricane should continue moving northwestward around the southwestern portion of a subtropical ridge that extends over Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday. After that time, a developing mid-level trough over the south-central United States should cause Delta to slow down and turn north-northwestward on Thursday. Delta is forecast to begin accelerating northward or north-northeastward toward the northern Gulf coast ahead of the trough Thursday night and Friday. There has been little change to the early portion of the track forecast, but there has been a little westward shift in the guidance envelope after 24 hours, and the NHC forecast has been moved in that direction. The new forecast track lies near or just left of the TVCA multi-model consensus and a little right of the HFIP corrected consensus aid, again close to the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and UKMet models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds will continue within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico into early afternoon. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to significant flash flooding, will affect the northern Yucatan Peninsula through early Thursday. 2. Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast, where there is an increasing likelihood of life- threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds beginning Friday, particularly for portions of the Louisiana coast. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect, and residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding is likely Friday through Saturday from portions of the central Gulf Coast northward into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley. As Delta moves farther inland, additional heavy rainfall is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 21.4N 88.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/0000Z 22.8N 90.2W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 08/1200Z 24.3N 92.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 26.0N 93.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 28.1N 93.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 30.8N 92.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/1200Z 33.2N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/1200Z 36.5N 86.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z 39.5N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Delta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2020-10-07 16:52:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2020 14:52:02 GMT

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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 12

2020-10-07 16:49:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 071449 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 ...CENTER OF DELTA ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 88.0W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf coast from High Island, Texas, to the Alabama/Florida border including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf coast from High Island, Texas, eastward to Grand Isle, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the Texas coast from west of High Island to San Luis Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued along the northern Gulf coast from east of Grand Isle, Louisiana, to Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, including the city of New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. The government of Cuba has discontinued all warnings for Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * High Island, Texas, to the Alabama/Florida border including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico * Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * San Luis Pass to west of High Island Texas * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Bay St. Louis Mississippi, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 88.0 West. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northwestward motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours. A north-northwestward motion is expected by late Thursday, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast within the hurricane watch area on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again. Some weakening is is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progreso, and 5 to 7 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Pecan Island, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Ocean Springs, MS to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft Sabine Lake...1-3 ft Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning area in the Yucatan peninsula during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas along the Gulf coast by late Thursday night or early Friday with hurricane conditions possible within the hurricane watch area by Friday morning. RAINFALL: Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea today. Swell will begin to affect portions of the northern and western Gulf coast on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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