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Hurricane Nana Graphics
2020-09-03 04:54:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2020 02:54:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2020 03:31:36 GMT
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Hurricane Nana Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-09-03 04:53:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 030252 TCDAT1 Hurricane Nana Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 After the center of Nana nearly became exposed during the late afternoon, a new burst of convection developed near and to the south of the center which has resulted in strengthening this evening. Very recently received data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has indicated that Nana has become a hurricane. The plane has measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 72 kt to the north of the center, and peak SFMR winds of 62 kt earlier this evening. These data support an initial intensity of 65 kt, making Nana the fifth hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Since Nana should make landfall along the coast of Belize within the next several hours, little additional strengthening is expected before the center crosses the coast. Rapid weakening will occur after landfall, and the new 12 through 36 hour intensity forecast reflects this. The low-level center is likely to dissipate over mountainous terrain within 48 hours, if not sooner. Nana is moving just south of due west at about 265/14 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Nana should keep it moving on a west-southwestward motion during the next day or so. The guidance enveloped has shifted slightly southward and the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge will spread onshore along portions of the coast of Belize within the Hurricane Warning area through early Thursday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Belize, the Bay Islands, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through early Thursday. 3. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12 inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 17.0N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 16.8N 89.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/0000Z 16.4N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1200Z 16.0N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Nana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-09-03 04:52:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 845 FONT11 KNHC 030251 PWSAT1 HURRICANE NANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE CITY 34 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Nana Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-09-03 04:51:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 030251 TCMAT1 HURRICANE NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-GUATEMALA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO CHETUMAL * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER * CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF GUATEMALA * ISLA ROATAN AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 87.5W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 87.5W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N 89.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.4N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 93.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 87.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane Nana (AT1/AL162020)
2020-09-03 04:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES NANA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE OVERNIGHT... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 the center of Nana was located near 17.0, -87.5 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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