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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-07-24 10:48:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240848 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 Douglas continues to look impressive in satellite images, with a clear eye and symmetric convection in all quadrants. Broad outflow channels extend about 300 n mi in every direction from the cyclone, indicative of nearly zero wind shear. The latest Dvorak CI values from TAFB and SAB, as well as the recent UW/CIMSS ADT estimates are all T6.0, which supports keeping the initial advisory intensity at 115 kt. Douglas is crossing the 26 C isotherm, and will continue to move over relatively cooler waters of about 25 C over the next day or so. This should cause the cyclone to begin weakening very soon. In about 48 h, Douglas is forecast to move back across the 26 C isotherm, but at the same time the cyclone is forecast to begin encountering a drier, more stable airmass and increasing vertical wind shear. Despite the warmer waters, these other more hostile environmental factors are expected to cause Douglas to gradually weaken for the remainder of the 5-day forecast period. The latest NHC forecast is changed little from the previous advisory, and is very close to a blend of the corrected consensus HCCA and the IVCN/ICON consensus aids. Douglas is still moving quickly west-northwestward or 295/16 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should keep moving the cyclone in the same general direction over the next couple of days. Over the weekend, as Douglas approaches the Hawaiian Islands, a more westward motion is forecast as another ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. There is some notable spread in the model guidance now compared to yesterday as Douglas approaches the Hawaiian Islands. The faster and southernmost guidance from the ECMWF takes the center of the cyclone over the big island, while the northernmost GFS and HWRF take the cyclone just north of the island chain. The other guidance, including the track consensus aids lie in between those solutions. The latest NHC forecast was nudged slightly northward between 48 h and 96 h, but still remains south of the consensus aids during those time periods. Otherwise, the NHC forecast was little changed from the previous one. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Douglas. Future information on this system can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 1500 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2 and WMO header WTPA22 PHFO. For information specific to the Hawaiian Islands, users should continue to consult products from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii, at www.weather.gov/hfo. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning Saturday night or Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. Watches could be issued on Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 15.7N 140.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 16.7N 142.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 17.9N 145.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 19.0N 148.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 19.9N 151.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 20.5N 154.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR HAWAII 72H 27/0600Z 21.0N 157.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR HAWAII 96H 28/0600Z 22.0N 163.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 22.4N 170.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Hurricane Douglas (EP3/EP082020)
2020-07-24 10:48:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POWERFUL HURRICANE DOUGLAS ENTERING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 11:00 PM HST Thu Jul 23 the center of Douglas was located near 15.7, -140.3 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane Douglas Public Advisory Number 16
2020-07-24 10:48:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 240847 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE DOUGLAS ENTERING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 140.3W ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Douglas. Watches could be issued on Friday for a portion of the area. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 140.3 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a gradual decrease in forward speed and a slight turn toward the west. On the forecast track Douglas will approach the Hawaiian Islands Saturday night, and be near those Islands on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Douglas is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Friday and continue through the weekend. Douglas is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Hawaiian Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Douglas are expected to begin affecting portions of the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 500 AM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-07-24 10:48:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 240847 PWSEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 140W 50 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 145W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) 17(17) 48(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 61(66) 4(70) X(70) X(70) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) 31(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 45(52) 1(53) X(53) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) X(38) X(38) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 3(42) X(42) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) 21N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 1(32) X(32) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 4(39) X(39) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) KAHULUI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 11(29) X(29) 21N 158W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 21N 158W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) BARKING SANDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 2(41) X(41) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) HANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 5(36) X(36) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 7(35) X(35) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) KAUNAKAKAI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 12(30) X(30) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) X(30) JOINT BASE PHH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) X(20) LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) 20N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 1(20) NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) 21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) NECKER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GARDNER PINN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-07-24 10:47:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 240847 TCMEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOUGLAS. WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 140.3W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 140.3W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 139.5W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.7N 142.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.9N 145.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.0N 148.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.9N 151.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.5N 154.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N 157.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 22.0N 163.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 22.4N 170.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 140.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP2...WMO HEADER WTPA22 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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