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Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 12
2020-07-31 05:59:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 310358 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Special Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1200 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 72.2W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the central and southeastern Bahamas, which include the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, the Ragged Islands, Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet * Lake Okeechobee Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida peninsula on Friday. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM EDT (0400 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 72.2 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days followed by turn toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas overnight. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near South Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the central and northwestern Bahamas. Storm surge will raise water level by as much as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels in the southeastern Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos tonight and early Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the central Bahamas Friday morning and spread into the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Saturday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola. From Friday night through Monday: South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of Cuba and into the central and northwestern Bahamas over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-07-31 05:57:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0400 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 310356 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0400 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDE THE ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...THE RAGGED ISLANDS...CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND BIMINI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET * LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 72.2W AT 31/0400Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 40SE 20SW 80NW. 34 KT.......210NE 120SE 30SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 120SE 0SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 72.2W AT 31/0400Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 71.2W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.6N 73.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 90SE 30SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.5N 76.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 100SE 40SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.2N 77.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.7N 79.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.3N 79.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.0N 79.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 34.6N 76.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 42.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 72.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 31/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Isaias (AT4/AL092020)
2020-07-31 05:40:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... As of 12:00 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 the center of Isaias was located near 20.4, -72.2 with movement NW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-07-31 04:35:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 310235 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 12(29) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 8(29) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 5(27) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 4(22) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 4(32) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 2(27) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 2(27) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 1(19) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) X(25) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 1(21) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20) X(20) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) X(23) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 3(21) X(21) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 2(16) X(16) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 22(41) 3(44) X(44) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 21(40) 3(43) X(43) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 16(46) 2(48) X(48) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 25(36) 10(46) 1(47) X(47) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 17(30) 7(37) 1(38) X(38) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 5( 5) 30(35) 31(66) 6(72) 1(73) X(73) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 32(34) 43(77) 4(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 1( 1) 36(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) 17(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) ANDROS 34 2 40(42) 23(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) ANDROS 50 X 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ANDROS 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 29 62(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) GREAT EXUMA 50 X 38(38) 7(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) GREAT EXUMA 64 X 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN SALVADOR 34 35 33(68) 1(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) MAYAGUANA 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Hanna Public Advisory Number 13A
2020-07-26 09:08:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 260707 CCB TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Hanna Intermediate Advisory Number 13A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 100 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Corrected to discontinue part of the Storm Surge Warnng ...HANNA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 98.5W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NW OF MCALLEN TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning along the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued along the Texas coast from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Port Aransas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barra el Mezquital Mexico to Port O'Connor Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning areas. Interests elsewhere along the Texas coast should monitor the progress of Hanna. Interests in northeastern Mexico should also monitor the progress of this tropical storm. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 98.5 West. Hanna is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hanna should continue to move farther inland over southern Texas this morning and move into northeastern Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (115 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected today as Hanna moves farther inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. A Texas Mesonet Station northeast of Edcouch, Texas, recently reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) and a wind gust of 68 mph (109 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Baffin Bay to Port Aransas including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay...4-6 ft Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay...2-4 ft Port Aransas to Port O'Connor including Aransas Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...1-3 ft North of Port O'Connor to High Island including Galveston Bay...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread farther inland overnight and Sunday. RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches through Monday in south Texas and into the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. This rain will produce life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding. Hanna is also expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts. SURF: Swells generated by Hanna will continue to affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight over parts of the lower to middle Texas coastal plain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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