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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 32
2019-09-30 10:36:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 300836 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 43.1W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 50 KT.......110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT.......210NE 220SE 150SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 300SE 360SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 43.1W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 43.3W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.3N 42.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.7N 40.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...250NE 270SE 200SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.0N 36.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 290SE 230SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 40.5N 31.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. 50 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 110NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 270SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 52.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...170NE 150SE 140SW 100NW. 34 KT...390NE 360SE 320SW 360NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 57.0N 13.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 43.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-30 07:33:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 05:33:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 03:24:53 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-30 07:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AZORES... As of 2:00 AM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Lorenzo was located near 28.1, -43.2 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 31A
2019-09-30 07:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 300533 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 200 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 ...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 43.2W ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 43.2 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected later today with a gradual increase in forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while it passes near the Azores. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-30 04:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 02:46:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 02:46:20 GMT
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