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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 30
2019-09-29 22:45:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 292045 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 The cloud pattern has continued to degrade throughout the day with cold cloud tops filling in the eye, with a gradual erosion of the convection over the southwest quadrant. A recent AMSR2 pass confirms that the eyewall is indeed open on the western side, and suggests there may be another eyewall replacement cycle occurring. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are currently performing multiple experimental flights inside and around Lorenzo, and are providing NHC with valuable data. The wind data from the SFMR are indicating that the hurricane-force winds extend outward farther than previously thought, about 60-70 n mi from the center in all quadrants. The aircraft also reported an adjusted minimum central pressure of 948 mb, a peak flight level wind of 99 kt, and an image capture from an on-board radar that confirmed the break in the eyewall. The available objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 102 kt to 114 kt. Based on a compromise of these data, the initial intensity has been set at 100 kt, but this may be a little generous given much lower dropsonde wind speeds measured by the aircraft. Lorenzo continues north-northeastward at 9 kt through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-latitude trough will approach Lorenzo from the west in a couple of days. Increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will force the hurricane to turn northeastward and accelerate beginning on Monday. The forecast track confidence remains very high through 48 hours, and the new forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. By 72 hours, the guidance continues to diverge significantly, likely due to how they are handling the interaction between Lorenzo and a larger extratropical cyclone to its north late in the forecast period. The ECMWF/UKMET do not have Lorenzo being absorbed into the larger low. Instead, they track Lorenzo to the east-northeast toward Europe ahead of the associated upper trough. The rest of the guidance has Lorenzo absorbed into the low several hundred miles west of the British Isles. The forecast track confidence remains low beyond 72 hours, and was nudged just a little to the left from the previous advisory. The aircraft near-surface dropsonde data suggests that Lorenzo is moving over cooler waters of 24-25 degrees C, a few degrees cooler than model guidance indicates, due to the upwelling of the waters with lower oceanic heat content. The environmental conditions for the next 48 hours are characterized by moderate southwesterly shear, decent moisture, and strong upper-level divergence. Due to the presence of the shear and cooler waters, gradual weakening is anticipated for the next couple of days. By 72 hours, much stronger shear and the interaction with the approaching mid-latitude trough should cause the cyclone to weaken at a faster rate and begin to transition to an extratropical cyclone. By 96 hours or so, extratropical transition is expected to be complete. The official intensity forecast was adjusted lower than the previous one through 48 hours, and then is similar thereafter. This solution is near the various multimodel consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 26.9N 44.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 28.2N 43.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 30.1N 42.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 32.4N 40.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 35.6N 37.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 44.6N 26.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 52.2N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1800Z 55.0N 15.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-29 22:44:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LORENZO WEAKER BUT STILL A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE... ...WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THE AZORES LATER TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of Lorenzo was located near 26.9, -44.2 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 30
2019-09-29 22:44:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 292044 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LORENZO WEAKER BUT STILL A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE... ...WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THE AZORES LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 44.2W ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 44.2 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected on Monday with a gradual increase in forward speed through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days, but Lorenzo is expected to remain a large hurricane throughout that time. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2019-09-29 22:44:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 292044 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 89(90) X(90) X(90) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 55(55) X(55) X(55) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 30
2019-09-29 22:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 292043 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO. WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 44.2W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT.......210NE 220SE 140SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 330SE 420SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 44.2W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 44.4W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.2N 43.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...210NE 220SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.1N 42.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.4N 40.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 35.6N 37.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...260NE 280SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 44.6N 26.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...330NE 330SE 240SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 52.2N 17.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 55.0N 15.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 44.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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