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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 29

2019-09-29 16:55:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 291455 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO. WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 44.4W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 35SW 70NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 110SW 100NW. 34 KT.......240NE 200SE 140SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 44.4W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 44.5W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.2N 43.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 70NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 110SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.9N 43.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.0N 41.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.7N 38.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...260NE 260SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.0N 29.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...330NE 330SE 240SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 50.0N 18.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 54.9N 11.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 44.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics

2019-09-29 10:34:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 08:34:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 08:34:49 GMT

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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 28

2019-09-29 10:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 290833 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 The satellite appearance of Lorenzo is not quite as impressive as it was several hours ago. Although the eye is still very distinct, the cloud tops are not as cold in the eyewall and there are a few dry slots evident beyond the inner core. The initial wind speed is lowered just slightly to 135 kt, but based on the latest satellite estimates this is probably generous. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Lorenzo later today, and the data they collect should provide a better assessment of the hurricane's intensity and structure. Very intense hurricanes like Lorenzo are usually not able to maintain their intensity for very long. Since Lorenzo will be moving toward cooler waters and into an environment of drier air and higher wind shear during the next several days, steady weakening is forecast. Lorenzo is now expected to become extratropical by day 4, when the cyclone will be over SSTs colder than 20 C. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the consensus models, IVCN, IVDR, and HCCA. Lorenzo is still moving northward at 9 kt through a break in the Atlantic subtropical ridge. A mid- to upper-level trough currently over eastern Canada is expected to amplify when it reaches the central Atlantic, which should cause Lorenzo to accelerate to the northeast during the next few days. This motion should take the core of Lorenzo near or just west of the Azores late Tuesday and Wednesday. After that time, there are significant differences in the models on whether or not Lorenzo interacts with an extratropical low over the north Atlantic. The ECMWF and UKMET models show little interaction with that low and show Lorenzo moving east-northeastward in the westerlies toward northwestern France, Ireland, and the United Kingdom. On the other hand, the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models show Lorenzo rotating around the eastern side of the low and remaining over the Atlantic. The spread in the models is incredibly large, about 1300 n mi by day 5. Given the high uncertainty at this time, only small changes were made to the NHC track forecast, and this one favors the UKMET and ECMWF solutions. However, confidence in the long-term track is very low and adjustments may be needed later today. The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch here at NHC provided input that the large wind field of Lorenzo and its expected faster forward motion in a few days will likely lead to extreme enhancement of the wave field and wave growth over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 25.1N 44.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 26.4N 44.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 29.9N 42.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 32.2N 40.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 39.4N 32.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 47.8N 20.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0600Z 53.5N 10.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)

2019-09-29 10:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of Lorenzo was located near 25.1, -44.6 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 925 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.

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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics

2019-09-29 04:36:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 02:36:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 02:36:39 GMT

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