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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 20
2019-09-27 16:41:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 271441 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 42.9W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT.......150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT.......230NE 190SE 110SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 360SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 42.9W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 42.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.8N 43.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 190SE 110SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.6N 44.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 190SE 110SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.2N 44.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.9N 43.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.6N 41.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 230SE 160SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 34.5N 37.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 42.5N 28.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 42.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-27 11:00:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 09:00:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 09:31:19 GMT
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 19
2019-09-27 10:58:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 270858 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 Lorenzo has maintained its impressive structure in satellite imagery this morning. The hurricane still has a fairly clear eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops. A 0423 UTC AMSR2 overpass showed a small break in the deepest convection in the southwest eyewall of the hurricane, but given how cloud tops have cooled since then, I suspect that did not last long. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed substantially since the last advisory, so the initial intensity remains 125 kt. The hurricane is moving steadily north-northwestward at 12 kt. The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement on Lorenzo's track and confidence in the forecast is high. Lorenzo should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it moves around the western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. By the end of the forecast period, Lorenzo will likely accelerate northeastward ahead of mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. The official track forecast is basically unchanged since the last advisory and now sits right in the middle of the guidance envelope. The NHC intensity forecast is also mostly unchanged since the last advisory. Although SHIPS diagnostics suggest that moderate southwesterly shear could soon affect the cyclone, not much change in strength is anticipated for the next 24 hours since Lorenzo will be moving over slightly warmer waters and an eyewall replacement cycle does not seem imminent. Gradual weakening is then anticipated through early next week due to a modest increase in shear and a decrease in available ocean heat content. Short-term fluctuations in intensity related to eyewall replacement cycles are also possible during that time. The NHC forecast remains on the high side of the guidance for the first 24 hours, and is close to HCCA after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 18.6N 42.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 20.1N 42.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 21.8N 43.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 23.5N 43.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 25.1N 43.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 28.7N 41.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 33.3N 37.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 40.0N 30.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2019-09-27 10:56:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 270855 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 76(76) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-27 10:55:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POWERFUL LORENZO MAINTAINING STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 27 the center of Lorenzo was located near 18.6, -42.1 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 937 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
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