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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 16
2019-09-26 16:53:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 261453 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 A review of microwave satellite imagery from last night suggests that Lorenzo underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, with the outer eyewall becoming predominant around 06Z-09Z. Around that time, the hurricane started to rapidly intensify, with the eye becoming much better defined in conventional satellite imagery. Raw Data-T numbers from both subjective and objective versions of the Dvorak Technique suggest that the maximum winds have increased to near 115 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The initial wind radii have been revised based on a recently received scatterometer overpass. The initial motion is 295/11. Lorenzo is approaching a developing break in the subtropical ridge caused by a series of mid-latitude troughs to the northwest of the hurricane, and the track guidance models are in excellent agreement that Lorenzo should recurve through the break during the forecast period. There are no significant changes to the guidance since the last advisory, and there are no significant changes to the forecast track either. Data from the SHIPS model suggest that Lorenzo will be in an area of maximum potential intensities of 125-135 kt for the next 3-4 days. This suggests that the rapid intensification should end in the next 6-12 h as the actual intensity approaches those speeds. Fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are expected during the 12-36 h period. The global models suggest that Lorenzo will subsequently interact with an upper-level trough during recurvature, which should cause a period of increased shear and some weakening of the cyclone around 48 h. By 120 h, the hurricane should weaken due to movement over colder water and into strong shear in the mid-latitude westerlies. While its exact ranking will be determined later, Lorenzo is one of the largest and most powerful hurricanes of record for the central tropical Atlantic, with the only comparable hurricane in recent times near there being Gabrielle of 1989. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 15.4N 40.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 16.7N 41.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 20.2N 43.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 21.9N 43.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 25.2N 43.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 29.0N 41.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 34.0N 37.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-26 16:52:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 26 the center of Lorenzo was located near 15.4, -40.2 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 949 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 16
2019-09-26 16:52:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 261452 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...LORENZO BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 40.2W ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 40.2 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Lorenzo is forecast to turn toward the northwest later today, and this motion should continue through Friday. A turn toward the north is expected Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible today, and fluctuations in intensity are expected tonight through Friday night. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2019-09-26 16:52:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 261452 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 16
2019-09-26 16:52:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 261452 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 40.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. 34 KT.......220NE 120SE 80SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 40.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 39.8W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.7N 41.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.2N 43.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 43.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.2N 43.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 29.0N 41.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 34.0N 37.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 40.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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