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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 33
2021-09-08 22:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 741 WTNT42 KNHC 082050 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 Larry's overall organization has shown little change on satellite images this afternoon. The eye remains rather ill-defined but the hurricane continues to produce some strong convection near/around the center. Cirrus-level outflow remains quite well defined, particularly to the northwest. The current intensity estimate is held at 95 kt, which is only slightly above the latest Dvorak estimates. Another Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Larry this evening to provide a new intensity estimate. The hurricane continues heading a little faster toward the northwest, or at about 325/13 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains about the same as before. Larry should move around the western side of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone over the central Atlantic for the next 36 to 48 hours, passing east of Bermuda tomorrow. After that, the hurricane is expected to accelerate northeastward on the east side of a deep-layer trough moving through the eastern United States, and Larry will move near or over southeastern Newfoundland in roughly 60 hours. Then, the cyclone is forecast to move over the far north Atlantic. The official forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus solution and, again, very similar to the previous NHC track. Based on the dynamical model guidance, weak to moderate vertical shear should prevail over Larry during the next couple of days. Sea surface temperatures below the cyclone begin to cool significantly after 48 hours, which should induce weakening. However, baroclinic forcing associated with the trough to the west may help the hurricane maintain some of its intensity over cooler waters, as suggested by the global models. The official intensity forecast follows the model consensus and keeps Larry at hurricane strength even after extratropical transition. In 5 days or less, the system should merge with another large cyclonic circulation over the north Atlantic. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are expected there there Thursday, along with a risk of coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 28.9N 59.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 37.0N 61.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 42.0N 58.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 48.0N 52.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1800Z 54.0N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1800Z 62.0N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-08 22:50:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 20:50:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 21:23:05 GMT
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2021-09-08 22:46:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 082046 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 64(64) X(64) X(64) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 86(88) X(88) X(88) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 63(63) X(63) X(63) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 51(56) X(56) X(56) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) X(24) X(24) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 37(37) 7(44) X(44) X(44) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 6 23(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BERMUDA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-08 22:46:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY REMAINS LARGE AND POWERFUL... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 8 the center of Larry was located near 28.9, -59.2 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 33
2021-09-08 22:46:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 082046 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 ...LARRY REMAINS LARGE AND POWERFUL... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 59.2W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 59.2 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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