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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-09 23:01:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 21:01:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 21:01:25 GMT
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 37
2021-09-09 22:59:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 092059 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 A faint eye is still discernible on visible satellite images along with some banding features. On the Bermuda radar, the eyewall is partially open over the southern semicircle of the hurricane. Larry still has a prominent upper-tropospheric outflow pattern, especially over the northern portion of the circulation. The advisory intensity is held at 80 kt, just above the latest Dvorak Current Intensity Numbers from TAFB and SAB. Larry is now heading a little west of north at an increasing forward speed, and the initial motion is 345/17 kt. The hurricane has been moving around the western side of a large deep-layer high pressure area centered over the central Atlantic. By Friday, the system should accelerate northeastward ahead of a strong mid-tropospheric trough over the northeastern United States, and pass near or over southeastern Newfoundland within 36 hours. Thereafter, post-tropical cyclone Larry should move over the far North Atlantic. The official track forecast again lies close to the various consensus model predictions. The hurricane is expected to remain over warm waters with weak vertical shear for another 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter, Larry is forecast to move over the cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream and the shear will increase. These factors should induce weakening, but possible baroclinic forcing associated with the trough to the west of the cyclone could result in Larry maintaining some strength over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the latest NOAA corrected-consensus guidance, HCCA. Global model predictions indicate that Larry will merge with a front, and therefore become an extratropical cyclone, in 48 hours. These models also show the system merging with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic in 3 to 4 days. Key Messages: 1. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect. 2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda through this evening, along with a risk of coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 33.9N 62.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 36.8N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 42.2N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 48.4N 52.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 55.0N 46.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/0600Z 59.5N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1800Z 61.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1800Z...MERGED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-09 22:58:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 9 the center of Larry was located near 33.9, -62.2 with movement NNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 37
2021-09-09 22:58:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 092058 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 ...LARRY BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 62.2W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Hurricane Warning from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour, Newfoundland. The Canadian Hurricane Centre has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove, and from north of Jones Harbour to Bonavista, Newfoundland. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour Newfoundland A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda * Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Bonavista A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 62.2 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, with a faster northeastward motion forecast by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will continue to move away from Bermuda tonight, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Friday, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, then weaken further while it passes southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low east of Greenland by Monday. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). Pearl Island, Bermuda, reported sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 45 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda for the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland by late Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda today. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through today. Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 37
2021-09-09 22:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 092057 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR...NEWFOUNDLAND. THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE...AND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOUR TO BONAVISTA...NEWFOUNDLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO BONAVISTA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 62.2W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 320SE 280SW 320NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 62.2W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.8N 61.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 42.2N 59.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 180SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.4N 52.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 180SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 55.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...240NE 230SE 210SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 59.5N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 220SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 61.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...320NE 270SE 250SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 62.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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