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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 30
2021-09-08 04:43:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 080243 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 Larry's eye has become a little better defined since the previous advisory, and the eyewall convective cloud tops have cooled, with a nearly solid ring of -65C to -70C now surrounding the eye. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has risen slightly to 966-968 mb and that peak 700-mb flight-level winds measured were 106 kt in the northeast quadrant. These data would suggest that the intensity has decreased a little to 95-96 kt. However, the peak flight-level wind of 106 kt was measured in the wake of a strong eyewall convective burst, suggesting that stronger winds could have been present in that convection. Also, if the surrounding eyewall convective ring closes off during the nocturnal convective maximum period in another six hours, then Dvorak intensity estimates would increase from the current T5.0/90 kt to T5.5/102 kt. Thus, Larry's intensity has been maintained at 100 kt for this advisory in order to avoid possible intensity vacillations. The initial motion estimate is 325/10 kt, based on reconnaissance aircraft fixes over the past 12 hours. There remains no significant change to the track forecast or reasoning over the past 48 hours. The latest NHC model guidance remains in strong agreement on Larry continuing to move northwestward and then northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge during the next 48 hours or so. After passing east of Bermuda by early day 3, the hurricane is forecast to accelerate northeastward and move into the mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a large, eastward-moving trough that is currently approaching the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada. By day 5, Larry is expected to move across the far north Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies along the eastern edge of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models. Larry's upper-level outflow pattern remains impressive, and has even expanded and accelerated on the east side owing to a southward-digging upper-level trough, which has enhanced the outflow in that part of the hurricane. The vertical wind shear affecting Larry is expected to remain low for the next 24 hours or so while the hurricane passes over even warmer sea-surface temperatures (SST) approaching 29.7 deg C, even though the oceanic heat content will be decreasing. However, entrainment of dry mid-level air along with eye fluctuations are expected to offset the warmer SSTs. Thus, a slow but steady decrease in intensity through 48-60 hours is expected. Late in the forecast period, colder waters and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear exceeding 30 kt should induce a faster rate of weakening. By 96-120 hours, the global models also indicate Larry will be merging with a frontal zone. Therefore, the new intensity forecast continues to show extratropical transition during that time period. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the simple- and corrected-consensus intensity models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it transitions to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is a risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor the progress of Larry and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 25.8N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 27.2N 58.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 29.2N 59.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 31.5N 61.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 34.6N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 39.1N 60.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 44.5N 55.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 56.2N 43.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0000Z 62.8N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 30
2021-09-08 04:42:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 080242 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 56.8W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 56.8W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 56.5W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.2N 58.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.2N 59.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.5N 61.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.6N 61.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.1N 60.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 44.5N 55.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 180SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 56.2N 43.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 62.8N 33.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 56.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-08 04:42:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARGE LARRY CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 7 the center of Larry was located near 25.8, -56.8 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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at2al122021
Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 30
2021-09-08 04:42:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 080242 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 ...LARGE LARRY CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 56.8W ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane Larry was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 56.8 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday. Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance aircraft is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning late Wednesday or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2021-09-08 04:42:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 080242 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) X(46) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 44(79) X(79) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 37(47) X(47) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 19(52) X(52) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24) X(24) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 11(26) X(26) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 1(34) X(34) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 10(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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