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Tropical Storm Pamela Graphics
2021-10-13 04:38:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Oct 2021 02:38:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Oct 2021 02:38:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-10-13 04:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 130237 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Westerly shear has continued to prevent Pamela from restrengthening this evening. Although there was a significant burst of deep convection since the previous advisory, the center remains on the northwestern edge of the convective cloud mass and more recently the cloud tops associated with that burst has begun to warm. A blend of subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from SAB and TAFB, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate stills support an initial intensity of 60 kt. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Pamela overnight, which should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity. Recent center fixes show that Pamela has made its much anticipated north-northeastward turn, and it is now moving 020/10 kt. The tropical storm should accelerate northeastward during the next 12 to 24 hours as it gets caught in deep-layer southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico, and an approaching mid-latitude trough to the northwest. This motion should bring the center of Pamela to the coast of west-central mainland Mexico around 1200 UTC Wednesday morning. After that time, Pamela or its remnants should continue moving quickly northeastward across central and northern Mexico through Wednesday night. Although a 36-h post-tropical cyclone point is shown over southern Texas, the low-level center is likely to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Pamela will be moving over very warm SSTs of around 31C overnight, and that combined with a slightly more conducive upper-level wind pattern should allow Pamela to restrengthen into a hurricane before it reaches the coast of Mexico Wednesday morning. After landfall, rapid weakening will occur as Pamela moves over the rugged terrain of west-central Mexico. The latest NHC intensity forecast is again near the higher side of the guidance envelope, but it shows a slightly lower peak intensity before landfall than the previous official forecast. Although Pamela is likely to dissipate over the rugged terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United States late Wednesday or Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to restrengthen into a hurricane before it reaches the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango along with southern portions of Baja California Sur tonight and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 21.9N 108.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 23.8N 106.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 14/0000Z 26.6N 103.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/1200Z 29.7N 99.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-10-13 04:37:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 064 FOPZ11 KNHC 130237 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0300 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 53 7(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) ISLAS MARIAS 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MAZATLAN 34 91 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) MAZATLAN 50 39 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) MAZATLAN 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Pamela (EP1/EP162021)
2021-10-13 04:36:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PAMELA FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY MORNING... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 the center of Pamela was located near 21.9, -108.7 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Summary for Tropical Storm Pamela (EP1/EP162021)
2021-10-13 01:43:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OUTER RAINBANDS FROM PAMELA MOVING OVER ISLAS MARIAS... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING... As of 6:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 the center of Pamela was located near 21.5, -108.9 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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