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Hurricane Grace Public Advisory Number 23
2021-08-19 04:54:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 190254 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 ...GRACE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... ...EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THAT AREA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 85.6W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo, and a Tropical Storm Watch from the coast of mainland Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Puerto de Altamira. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud * The coast of mainland Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Puerto de Altamira A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 85.6 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general west- northwestward to westward motion is expected through Friday, followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to make landfall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula during the next six to twelve hours, move across the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico late Thursday through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before landfall on the Yucatan peninsula. Grace is expected to weaken as it crosses Yucatan, but re-intensification is expected when the center reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late tonight or early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning during the next few hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread inland the Yucatan Peninsula during the day Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in mainland Mexico by by late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area for the next several hours. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over central and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding. Over central to northern Veracruz...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of producing mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday and along the eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Grace Forecast Advisory Number 23
2021-08-19 04:54:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190254 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO... AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO PUERTO DE ALTAMIRA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO...INCLUDING COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO PUERTO DE ALTAMIRA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.6W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.6W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 84.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.3N 88.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.6N 91.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 94.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 96.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.7N 101.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 85.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Grace Graphics
2021-08-19 01:55:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Aug 2021 23:55:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Aug 2021 21:29:46 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-19 01:54:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 the center of Grace was located near 19.8, -84.9 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane Grace Public Advisory Number 22A
2021-08-19 01:54:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 182354 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 ...GRACE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 84.9W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 84.9 West. Grace is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to make landfall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula Thursday morning, move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center of Grace reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Weakening will occur while the center moves over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, with restrengthening expected when Grace moves over the southwest Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). NOAA buoy 40256, located west of the center, recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (83 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 989 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Strong gusty winds are likely over portions of the Cayman Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area for the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late tonight or early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Cayman Islands and central to northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding Over the central to northern Veracruz state of Mexico, 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of producing mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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