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Hurricane Grace Forecast Advisory Number 22

2021-08-18 22:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 182040 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO...INCLUDING COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 83.7W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 83.7W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 83.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.2N 86.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.7N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.9N 92.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.8N 94.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 97.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.0N 99.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 19.5N 104.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 83.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Grace Graphics

2021-08-18 19:41:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Aug 2021 17:41:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Aug 2021 15:28:31 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Grace (AT2/AL072021)

2021-08-18 19:39:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GRACE HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 the center of Grace was located near 19.6, -83.0 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane Grace Public Advisory Number 21A

2021-08-18 19:39:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 181739 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 ...GRACE HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 83.0W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 83.0 West. Grace is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to make landfall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula Thursday morning, move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before the center of Grace reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Weakening will occur while the center moves over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, with restrengthening expected when Grace moves over the southwest Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area through today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late tonight or early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Cayman Islands, portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State of Mexico....4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday night. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, with mudslides possible in Veracruz. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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