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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 20

2021-08-18 10:55:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 248 WTNT32 KNHC 180855 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 ...OUTER BANDS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... ...GRACE STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 80.9W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica. The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the southern coast Cuban provinces of Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey. The Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas have also been discontinued. The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the north and west coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula from west of Dzilam to Campeche. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings may be required later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 80.9 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near or over the Cayman Islands later this morning. Grace will approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by tonight, with some additional strengthening possible prior to the center reaching the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A reporting station near Rum Point Beach on the north shore of Grand Cayman recently measured a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area and over the Cayman Islands through this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area through today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Vera Cruz state....4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday night. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, with mudslides possible in Jamaica. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels as high as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels in portions of the Cayman Islands. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica to the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 20

2021-08-18 10:52:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 180852 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Grace earlier this morning observed a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 61 kt in the northeastern quadrant along with reliable SFMR surface wind speeds of 50-52 kt. The aircraft measured a central pressure of about 1000 mb, a reading that had been steady for about 3 hours. Those data were the basis for maintaining the 0600 UTC intensity at 50 kt. Since the last recon mission, however, deep convection has increased markedly over the low-level center, with cloud tops exceeding -75 deg C. Although the center is just inside the western edge of convective cloud canopy due to modest west-northwesterly vertical wind shear, Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T3.5/55 kt. These intensity estimates, along with the increase in convection over the center is the justification for increasing the 0900 UTC advisory intensity to 55 kt. Grace has been maintaining a steady course north of due west, or 280/14 kt for more than 18 hours. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to keep Grace moving in direction between west and west-northwest through the 96-hour forecast period. The latest NHC model guidance remain in strong agreement on Grace making landfall along the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico shortly after the 24-hour forecast period, followed by a motion across the peninsula and emerging over the Bay of Campeche around 36 hours. Thereafter, the model guidance begins to diverge, with the HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC regional models along the northern side of the guidance envelope, the GFS and UKMET global models down the middle, and the ECMWF model along the southern edge of the guidance suite. The new NHC forecast lies close to the previous advisory track and the consensus models TVCA and HCCA, which are a little south of the FSSE consensus model. Although the upper-level wind environment isn't ideal for rapid strengthening, it is conducive enough for steady strengthening to occur due to the flow forecast to be strongly diffluent. Sea-surface temperatures are expected to be near 30 deg C and the water is also deep and warm, which should prevent any cold upwelling from occurring beneath the cyclone. As a result, a peak intensity of 75 kt just prior to landfall has been carried over from the previous advisory, which is a little above all of the 0600 UTC intensity guidance. Although Grace will weaken substantially after passing over the Yucatan peninsula, restrengthening is expected over the warm waters of thew Bay of Campeche in the 48-72- hour period where the upper-level flow regime is forecast to be more conducive for intensification. Dissipation is now expected over the mountains of central Mexico by 120 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids at 36 hours and beyond. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected over portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning late tonight. 2. Over the next few days, heavy rainfall across the Cayman Islands as well as portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Vera Cruz State should lead to flash and urban flooding. Mudslides will be possible in Jamaica. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the Cayman Islands through this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward from portions of the southern coast of Cuba in the warning area to, possibly, other portions of the southern coast of Cuba in the watch area today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 18.8N 80.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 19.3N 83.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 19.9N 86.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 20.3N 89.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0600Z 20.6N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 20/1800Z 20.7N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 20.7N 96.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 20.6N 101.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 20

2021-08-18 10:51:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 144 WTNT22 KNHC 180851 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS HAVE ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF DZILAM TO CAMPECHE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO... INCLUDING COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 80.9W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 80.9W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 80.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.3N 83.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.9N 86.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.3N 89.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.6N 92.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 94.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.7N 96.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 20.6N 101.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 80.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

2021-08-18 10:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 180851 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 14(34) X(34) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 15(44) X(44) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 3(28) X(28) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MERIDA MX 34 X 5( 5) 47(52) 9(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 14(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 3 76(79) 10(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) COZUMEL MX 50 X 43(43) 21(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) COZUMEL MX 64 X 14(14) 12(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BELIZE CITY 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUANAJA 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 6 32(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 5 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 17 9(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND CAYMAN 50 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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