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Tropical Storm Dolly Public Advisory Number 7
2020-06-24 04:50:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240250 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolly Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 ...DOLLY LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.5N 60.3W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located near latitude 40.5 North, longitude 60.3 West. Dolly is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast as Dolly moves over colder waters, and the system is expected to become post-tropical on Wednesday. The remnant low should then dissipate by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Dolly Graphics
2020-06-24 04:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Jun 2020 02:33:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Jun 2020 03:24:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-06-24 04:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240232 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 Dolly's deep convection is diminishing as the cyclone begins to move over colder waters to the north of the Gulf Stream. Given the decreased convection, it is assumed that the circulation is gradually spinning down and the current intensity is therefore estimated to be near 35 kt. This is also consistent with data from a recent scatterometer overpass. Within 24 hours, the system will be moving over SSTs of around 15 deg C, and the cyclone should have degenerated into remnant low devoid of significant convection. The global models forecast the system to open up into a trough in 36 hours or so and the official forest calls for dissipation by 48 hours, if not sooner. The cyclone continues to move east-northeastward, or around 060/9 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning, Dolly is expected to turn northeastward with an increase in forward speed as it moves with the southwesterly mid-level flow to the southeast of the main branch of mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast lies close to the previous one and is on top of the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA, track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 40.5N 60.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 41.8N 58.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 43.9N 55.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1200Z 45.8N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Dolly Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-06-24 04:31:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 240231 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 0300 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-06-24 04:31:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 502 WTNT24 KNHC 240231 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 0300 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 60.3W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 110SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 60.3W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 60.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 41.8N 58.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 43.9N 55.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 45.8N 52.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.5N 60.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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