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Tropical Storm Dolly Graphics
2020-06-23 22:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Jun 2020 20:35:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Jun 2020 21:24:41 GMT
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dolly
Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-06-23 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 232033 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 Dolly's structure has continued to improve somewhat during the day with convective banding now extending around the eastern and northern side of the circulation. While water vapor imagery indicates that an upper-level low is still in the vicinity of Dolly, that feature is displaced from the cyclone a bit, with some anticyclonic outflow noted in the cirrus canopy. This structure further supports the analysis of Dolly's transition to a tropical storm. For intensity, there is a wide range among satellite estimates, with TAFB and SAB ranging from 25-35 kt and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates between 45-50 kt. The initial intensity will remain 40 kt on this advisory, matching what was shown by the earlier scatterometer data. Dolly continues to move east-northeastward with an initial motion of 060/10 kt. Strengthening mid-latitude southwesterly flow is expected to cause Dolly to turn northeastward and begin accelerating tonight into Wednesday, and the track guidance is in good agreement on the future path and speed of the storm. Dolly's future track will take it over much colder waters and into a higher-shear environment over the next day or so, which should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday. Dissipation is still shown at 48 hours, but global models fields indicate that the circulation could open up before then as the system nears the southeastern tip of Newfoundland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 40.1N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 41.2N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 43.1N 56.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0600Z 45.0N 53.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dolly (AT4/AL042020)
2020-06-23 22:32:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DOLLY BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE GULF STREAM CURRENT... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Jun 23 the center of Dolly was located near 40.1, -61.1 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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dolly
Tropical Storm Dolly Public Advisory Number 6
2020-06-23 22:32:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 232032 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolly Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 ...DOLLY BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE GULF STREAM CURRENT... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.1N 61.1W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located near latitude 40.1 North, longitude 61.1 West. Dolly is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast as Dolly moves over colder waters, and the system is expected to become post-tropical on Wednesday. The remnant low should then dissipate by early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-06-23 22:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 232032 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 2100 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 61.1W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 100SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 61.1W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 61.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 41.2N 59.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 43.1N 56.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 45.0N 53.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.1N 61.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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