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Tropical Storm Dolly Graphics
2020-06-23 18:41:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Jun 2020 16:41:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Jun 2020 16:41:13 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-06-23 18:40:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 231640 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dolly Special Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 100 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 A 1348 UTC ASCAT-A scatterometer pass, arriving just after the previous advisory was issued, indicates that the cyclone is producing winds of 35-40 kt in its southern semicircle. In addition, the radius of maximum winds has contracted to about 40 n mi. This, along with the current convective pattern, suggests that the system has made a transition from a subtropical to a tropical cyclone, and it has been designated as Tropical Storm Dolly. This Special Advisory package is being issued to update the intensity and wind radii forecasts, increasing Dolly's maximum winds at each forecast time by 5 kt during the next 24 hours. The forecast track and status changes are the same as in the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1700Z 39.4N 61.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 40.6N 60.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 42.3N 58.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z 44.2N 55.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Dolly Public Advisory Number 5
2020-06-23 18:39:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 231639 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolly Special Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 100 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 ...DOLLY FORMS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.4N 61.7W ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM AST (1700 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 61.7 West. Dolly is moving toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and on Wednesday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next day or two as Dolly moves over colder waters, and the system is expected to become post-tropical on Wednesday. The low should then dissipate by early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Dolly Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-06-23 18:39:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1700 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 231639 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 1700 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 AT 1700Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-06-23 18:39:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1700 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 231639 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 1700 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 61.7W AT 23/1700Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 61.7W AT 23/1700Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 62.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 40.6N 60.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 42.3N 58.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 44.2N 55.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 61.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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