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Tropical Storm RACHEL Graphics
2014-09-30 05:08:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 30 Sep 2014 02:39:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 30 Sep 2014 03:04:45 GMT
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rachel
Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 23
2014-09-30 04:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 300237 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014 A burst of deep convection with cloud tops of -70C to -75C developed during the late afternoon in the same region where earlier ASCAT overpasses indicated several surface wind vectors of 40-43 kt. As a result, the intensity at 0000 UTC synoptic time was maintained at 45 kt. However, over the past couple of hours, cloud tops have warmed and decreased in areal coverage significantly, so the advisory intensity has been lowered to 40 kt. The initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt. Steering currents are collapsing as Rachel moves into a large break in the subtropical ridge created by a mid-latitude trough to the north of the cyclone. As a result, Rachel is expected to become nearly stationary fairly soon and meander in the same general area for the next 24 hours or so. After that, the ridge to the north of what should be a significantly weakened tropical cyclone is expected to build back in as the mid-latitude trough lifts out, driving Rachel or its remnants slowly toward the west or west-southwest until dissipation occurs in 72-96 hours. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track and the consensus model TVCE. Rachel is not long for this world due to the combination of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, sea-surface temperatures less than 26C, and a cooler and drier airmass working its way into the inner core region of the cyclone. As a result, the storm is expected to weaken to a remnant low pressure system within 24 hours and dissipate by 96 hours. The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the Decay-SHIPS model and the consensus intensity model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 23.3N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 23.3N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 23.3N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1200Z 23.2N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0000Z 23.1N 118.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/0000Z 23.0N 120.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-30 04:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RACHEL WEAKENS SOME MORE WHILE IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 29 the center of RACHEL was located near 23.3, -117.5 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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rachel
Tropical Storm RACHEL Public Advisory Number 23
2014-09-30 04:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 300236 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014 ...RACHEL WEAKENS SOME MORE WHILE IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 117.5W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST. RACHEL IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY LATE TUESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2014-09-30 04:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 300236 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 0300 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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