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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 23
2014-09-30 04:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 300235 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 0300 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 117.5W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 117.5W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.3N 117.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.3N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.2N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.1N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 23.0N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 117.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Graphics
2014-09-29 23:08:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Sep 2014 20:36:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Sep 2014 21:04:44 GMT
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rachel
Tropical Storm RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2014-09-29 22:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 29 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 292037 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 2100 UTC MON SEP 29 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-09-29 22:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 292036 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014 Rachel continues to slowly weaken. Visible satellite imagery shows its exposed low-level center located on the south side of a small patch of deep convection, with the remnant mid-level circulation displaced well to the northeast. The cyclone's current ragged structure is partly a result of persistent south-southwesterly shear of around 25 kt as diagnosed by UW-CIMSS analyses. A 1715 UTC AMSU microwave pass also suggested that dry and stable air has been wrapping around the circulation of the storm. The initial intensity estimate is lowered to 45 kt based on peak winds of 43 kt from a 1714 UTC ASCAT-B pass. With strong southwesterly shear expected to continue and thermodynamic conditions likely to become even more unfavorable, further steady weakening is expected. These hostile environmental factors should cause Rachel to weaken to a remnant low in about 24 hours and dissipate in 2-3 days, as shown in global model guidance. The new NHC intensity forecast represents an update of the previous one and is in good agreement with the multi-model consensus. Rachel has been drifting steadily northward, and the initial motion estimate is 360/02. In the next 12 hours or so, a slow northward motion is likely to continue, so long as the cyclone maintains enough vertical integrity. After that time, Rachel should transition into a shallower vortex and be carried generally west-southwestward with a modest increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a bit to the right and is somewhat south and west of the ECMWF, GFS, and multi-model consensus model, TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 23.0N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 23.2N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 23.1N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0600Z 23.0N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1800Z 22.8N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1800Z 22.6N 120.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain/Lewitsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-29 22:34:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RACHEL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 29 the center of RACHEL was located near 23.0, -117.5 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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