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Tropical Depression Cristobal Public Advisory Number 27A

2020-06-08 13:47:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 081147 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 700 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 ...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND... ...HEAVY RAINS FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 91.6W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SSE OF MONROE LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning along the Gulf coast has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 91.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion should continue today. A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast motion Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal should move through northeastern Louisiana today, through Arkansas and eastern Missouri tonight and Tuesday, and reach Wisconsin and the western Great Lakes by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected through Tuesday. However, Cristobal is expected to strengthen some as it becomes an extratropical low Tuesday night and Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Gulf coast and will begin to subside after the next high tide cycle. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are expected to continue during the next few hours over portions of the northern Gulf coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Gusty winds could also occur Tuesday night and Wednesday over portions of the Midwest and western Great Lakes as Cristobal becomes an extratropical low. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across portions of the central to eastern Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to 15 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of Cristobal. This rainfall has led to flash flooding and forecast widespread river flooding across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Smaller streams across southeast LA and southern MS have begun to rise and are forecast to crest mid-week. New and renewed significant river flooding is possible across the mid and upper Mississippi Valley. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight across Mississippi, Alabama, southeastern Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, and southeastern Missouri. SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal are still affecting portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast, and are likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Blake

Tags: number public advisory tropical

Tropical Depression Cristobal Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2020-06-08 10:37:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 08 Jun 2020 08:37:57 GMT

Tags: map storm tropical depression

Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 27

2020-06-08 10:36:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080836 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 Radar and surface observations indicate that Cristobal has continued to weaken as it moves farther inland. The initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt, with these winds occuring over portions of the coastline and coastal waters from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. The surface observations also indicate that the central pressure is near 994 mb. While the cyclone is weakening, satellite and radar data show a large area of convective bands continuing in the northeastern quadrant. The initial motion is now 330/9. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Cristobal should continue north-northwestward today as a high pressure ridge over the Great Lakes slides eastward. The cyclone is expected to turn northward by tonight around the east side of the ridge, and then it should turn northeastward on Tuesday ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving into the central United States. A faster northeastward motion should bring the center of the cyclone across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday and into Canada on Wednesday. After that time, the system is expected to slow down after it completes its extratropical transition. There is little change to the previous forecast track except at 96 h, where the new forecast is a bit south of the previous forecast. The cyclone should continue to gradually weaken for the next 36-48 h as it moves farther inland. After that time, some re-intensification is expected as Cristobal becomes involved with mid-latitude cyclogenesis over the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the intensity forecast will call for the system to be a 35-kt extratropical low by 60 h. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate inside the envelope of another extratropical low by 120 h. It should be noted that Cristobal and the mid-latitude cyclone will combine to possibly cause gusty winds over portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Although Cristobal has weakened, life-threatening storm surge is expected to continue over a portion of the northern Gulf coast today. Heavy rains associated with the system will also spread over portions of the central United States over the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Although the center of Cristobal has moved inland, there remains a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Heavy rain associated with Cristobal will continue to push inland across the central Gulf coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley today, then up the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley Monday night through Tuesday night. The Central Gulf Coast region will be most prone to heavy rain issues after the passage of the center of Cristobal through Monday. Flash flooding, and new and renewed significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley. 3. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are expected this morning in the coastal areas from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. In addition, the combination of Cristobal and a mid-latitude cyclone may cause gust winds by midweek over portions of the Midwest and Great lakes regions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 31.0N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/1800Z 32.7N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0600Z 35.8N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1800Z 39.9N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0600Z 44.7N 88.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/1800Z 49.0N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0600Z 51.0N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0600Z 51.5N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Tropical Depression Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

2020-06-08 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 08 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 080835 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0900 UTC MON JUN 08 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 13 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 85 X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) BATON ROUGE LA 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) KEESLER AB 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number speed wind tropical

Summary for Tropical Depression Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)

2020-06-08 10:35:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CRISTOBAL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 the center of Cristobal was located near 31.0, -91.2 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tags: summary tropical depression cristobal

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