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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-08 04:51:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Jun 2020 02:51:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Jun 2020 03:23:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 26
2020-06-08 04:50:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080250 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 Earlier satellite, radar, and surface observations showed that the center of Cristobal made landfall in southeastern Louisiana around 2200 UTC. Since that time, the storm has turned north- northwestward with the center passing very near New Orleans. Recent Doppler radar data and surface observations suggest that the maximum winds have begun to decrease, and the advisory intensity is set to 40 kt. These winds are primarily occurring over the northern Gulf of Mexico waters. The initial motion estimate is 345/9 kt. Cristobal should continue north-northwestward overnight as a high pressure ridge over the Great Lakes slides eastward. The cyclone is expected to turn northward by Monday night, and then northeastward on Tuesday ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving into the central United States. A faster northeastward motion should bring the center of the cyclone across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday and into Canada on Wednesday. After that time, the system is expected to slow down after it completes its extratropical transition. The early portion of the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly eastward based on the more northward and eastward initial position, however the remainder of the track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and the various consensus aids. Gradual weakening should occur overnight as the circulation continues to move over land, and Cristobal is forecast to become a tropical depression Monday morning. Additional gradual weakening is anticipated while the cyclone moves over the central U.S. through Tuesday, but some slight re-strengthening is possible due to strong baroclinic forcing during the extratropical transition around midweek. The NHC intensity forecast is primarily a blend of the global models. As the system completes its extratropical transition, strong gusty winds are possible mid week behind an associated front over portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Although Cristobal has begun weakening, tropical-storm-force winds and life-threatening storm surge is expected to continue over a portion of the northern Gulf coast overnight. Heavy rains associated with the system will also spread over portions of the central United States over the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue along portions of the northern Gulf coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans through the overnight hours, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. 3. Heavy rainfall across north Florida should diminish overnight. Heavy rain will continue to push inland across the central Gulf coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley Sunday night. The Central Gulf Coast region will be most prone to heavy rain issues after the passage of the center of Cristobal through Monday. This heavy rain will move up the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday, then across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night. Flash flooding, and new and renewed significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 30.3N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 32.0N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 34.6N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1200Z 38.1N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0000Z 42.9N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/1200Z 47.5N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z 50.8N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0000Z 52.8N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 26
2020-06-08 04:50:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080250 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 ...CRISTOBAL BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 90.2W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 90.2 West. Cristobal is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Monday. A turn toward the north is forecast on Monday night, followed by a northeastward motion late Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move inland across southeastern Louisiana through early Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday, and then move over Wisconsin Tuesday night and into Canada on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening will continue overnight, and Cristobal is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression Monday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center, primarily over water to the east and southeast of the center. An observing site on the Okaloosa Florida Fishing Pier has recently measured 39 mph winds (63 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h). A NOAA automated site at Dauphin Island has recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (78 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft Ocean Springs MS to Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line, including Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf coast through tonight. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across portions of the central to eastern Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to 15 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of Cristobal. This rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding and widespread flooding on smaller streams across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. New and renewed significant river flooding is possible along the central Gulf Coast and into the Mississippi Valley. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama. SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2020-06-08 04:50:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 08 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 080250 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC MON JUN 08 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PENSACOLA FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 17 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MORGAN CITY LA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEESLER AB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 26
2020-06-08 04:49:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 08 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080249 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC MON JUN 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 90.2W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 180SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 90.2W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 89.8W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.0N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.6N 91.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.1N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.9N 89.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 47.5N 86.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 50.8N 83.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 52.8N 79.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 90.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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