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Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2020-06-07 22:42:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 072042 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 2100 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WHITING FLD FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 25 10(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MORGAN CITY LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) LAFAYETTE LA 34 26 X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) NEW IBERIA LA 34 33 X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) FORT POLK LA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KEESLER AB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 25
2020-06-07 22:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 421 WTNT33 KNHC 072040 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS LASHING THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE TO CONTINUE FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 89.9W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 89.9 West. Cristobal is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this afternoon, followed by a gradual turn toward the north-northwest later this evening and tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast this afternoon, then move inland across southeastern Louisiana this afternoon through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars and offshore oil platforms indicate that maximum sustained winds remain 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall. Gradual weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, an oil rig located about 80 miles south of Mobile, Alabama, measured a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (103 km/h) at an elevation of 123 ft. A NOAA automated observing station on Dauphin Island, Alabama, recently reported a sustained wind of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (77 km/h), and a Weatherflow site on Ship Island, Mississippi, observed a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph (77 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Tampa Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf coast through tonight. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the central to eastern Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to 12 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of Cristobal. This rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding and widespread flooding on smaller streams across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. New and renewed significant river flooding is possible along the central Gulf Coast and into the Mississippi Valley. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and northern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-06-07 22:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 420 WTNT23 KNHC 072040 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 2100 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 89.9W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 89.9W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 89.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.9N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 170SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.4N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 36.7N 91.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 40.5N 90.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 45.2N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 48.7N 85.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 53.2N 81.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 89.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-07 19:56:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Jun 2020 17:56:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Jun 2020 15:25:35 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-07 19:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL SLOWS DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF LOUISIANA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 the center of Cristobal was located near 28.8, -89.9 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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