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Tropical Storm Bertha Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-05-27 14:07:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1230 UTC WED MAY 27 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 271207 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022020 1230 UTC WED MAY 27 2020 AT 1230Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-05-27 14:06:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1230 UTC WED MAY 27 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 271206 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022020 1230 UTC WED MAY 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 79.4W AT 27/1230Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 79.4W AT 27/1230Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 79.6W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 33.2N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 35.8N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 79.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN
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Tropical Storm Arthur Graphics
2020-05-19 10:32:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 May 2020 08:32:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 May 2020 09:24:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-05-19 10:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 190831 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Arthur's cloud pattern has continued to take on a generally post-tropical appearance, though a recent convective burst near its center suggests that it isn't quite post-tropical yet. Satellite imagery and earlier scatterometer data also indicate the presence of a developing warm front near the cyclone's center, and this could be contributing the the development of the aforementioned convective burst. ASCAT-C data that arrived early this morning showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt, and this was the primary basis for the initial intensity. Virtually no change was made to the intensity forecast. Despite the recent increase of convection near Arthur's center, extratropical transition should finish fairly soon. Slight strengthening due to baroclinic forcing is possible through the afternoon, but the cyclone is forecast to begin spinning down by tonight or Wednesday morning. The global and regional models indicate that the system will dissipate within about 72 h, and this is reflected in the official forecast. Only small adjustments were made to the track forecast, which remains near the multi-model consensus. As Arthur weakens it should be steered generally southward around the east side of a low-level ridge. The models differ on how quickly the southward turn will occur, but all agree on that general scenario. The latest NHC forecast is a little west of the previous one after 24 h. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 37.0N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 36.9N 68.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/0600Z 36.1N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/1800Z 34.6N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0600Z 33.3N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/1800Z 32.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-05-19 10:31:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 190830 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0900 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 13(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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