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Tropical Storm Arthur Graphics
2020-05-18 07:40:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 May 2020 05:40:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 May 2020 03:24:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Arthur Graphics
2020-05-18 05:00:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 May 2020 03:00:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 May 2020 03:00:10 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Arthur (AT1/AL012020)
2020-05-18 04:59:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT ARTHUR HAS CHANGED LITTLE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun May 17 the center of Arthur was located near 32.4, -76.9 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Number 6
2020-05-18 04:59:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180259 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT ARTHUR HAS CHANGED LITTLE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 76.9W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 76.9 West. Arthur is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast to occur on Monday. A turn toward the east is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will remain well offshore of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina overnight, and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday. Arthur is forecast to turn away from the east coast of the United States Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Arthur is likely to lose tropical characteristics Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure measured by the reconnaissance aircraft is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Monday. RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina Sunday night and Monday, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-05-18 04:56:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 180256 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0300 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 18 10(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) NEW RIVER NC 34 14 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MOREHEAD CITY 34 9 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 19(23) 7(30) X(30) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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