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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-06-18 16:49:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 464 WTPZ44 KNHC 181449 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Recent SSMIS microwave imagery indicates that convective banding continues to become established to the north and west of the cyclone's center, while the overall area of deep convection is gradually expanding. Dvorak satellite classifications have increased to T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.3/35 kt from SAB, and the depression is therefore being upgraded to a tropical storm with maximum winds of 35 kt. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest (285/9 kt), to the south of a weak mid-level ridge which extends from the northwestern Caribbean Sea to central Mexico. Since Dolores is now reaching the western extent of this ridge, the storm is expected to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward around the ridge later today and into Saturday, reaching the coast of Colima or Jalisco by Saturday evening. The track models agree on this general scenario, although there is some spread on exactly where and if the center makes landfall. The GFS and HWRF models show a sharper turn toward the north, with the center moving inland near or south of the Manzanillo area, while the ECMWF and UKMET models depict a wider sweeping turn, keeping the center near or just off the coast in the vicinity of Cabo Corrientes. The updated NHC track forecast is between these two scenarios, near the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids, depicting a potential landfall along the Colima or Jalisco coasts Saturday evening. The new NHC track forecast is not too different than the previous forecast, although it does show Dolores reaching the coast a little sooner than previously expected. Additional strengthening is anticipated up until Dolores's potential landfall due to very warm sea surface temperatures (29 to 30 degrees Celsius), a moist environment, and significant upper-level divergence. The intensity models agree on this strengthening, although since several of the track models already have Dolores inland by 36 hours (which the NHC official forecast does not), they're showing the cyclone's intensity too low at that time. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid through 24 hours, but then it is above all of the guidance at 36 hours in order to show at least some additional strengthening before Dolores reaches the coast. Based on this forecast, Dolores is expected to be near or just below hurricane strength when it reaches the coast. This new forecast necessitates the issuance of a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch for a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico. Depending on the amount of land interaction after 36 hours, Dolores is expected to weaken fast as it continues moving northward along the west-central coast of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening today and on Saturday, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by Saturday evening. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are now in effect for portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.7N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 15.3N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 16.8N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 19.2N 105.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 22.1N 105.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 21/0000Z 24.4N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Dolores Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-06-18 16:49:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 384 FOPZ14 KNHC 181449 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 29(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 10(24) X(24) X(24) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 34(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 105W 34 2 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 44(45) 7(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X 8( 8) 51(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 1 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-06-18 16:49:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 181449 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.5W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.5W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 102.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.3N 103.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.8N 104.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.2N 105.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.1N 105.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.4N 106.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 102.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Oil Firms Evacuating Gulf of Mexico Facilities Ahead of Brewing Storm
2021-06-18 11:15:00| OGI
Chevron said it had removed non-essential staff from three U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil platforms and fully evacuated a fourth ahead of a brewing tropical storm.
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Tropical Storm Bill Graphics
2021-06-15 22:36:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 20:36:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 21:22:32 GMT
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