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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-09-10 22:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 102033 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAULETTE. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 50.1W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 120SE 210SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 50.1W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 49.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 50SE 30SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.6N 53.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.0N 55.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.6N 56.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.0N 58.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.2N 61.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 31.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 34.5N 64.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 50.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Rene Graphics
2020-09-10 22:32:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2020 20:32:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2020 20:32:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-09-10 22:31:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 102031 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 It appeared that the storm had become better organized this morning, but that development trend seems to have been at least temporarily interrupted. Rene's central features have become rather ragged-looking, and deep convection has diminished somewhat. It appears that the system is being disrupted a bit by easterly flow that is undercutting the outflow layer. There is also an apparent dearth of low-level inflow over the southern and southeastern portions of the circulation at this time. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain T3.0/45 kt, so the current intensity estimate is unchanged from the previous advisory. Assuming that the upper-level winds will soon become a little more conducive for strengthening, Rene is forecast to become a hurricane by the weekend. The official intensity forecast is a little below the latest model consensus. Rene continues its west-northwestward movement with a motion of near 285/10 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward for the next few days, while moving around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone. Later in the forecast period, A mid-level high is predicted to build to the northwest of Rene, which should slow down the cyclone's forward progress and cause it to turn to the left. At the present time, it appears that Rene will remain sufficiently separated from Paulette, which is located about 800 n mi to the west, for there not to be a significant binary interaction between the two storms. The official track forecast remains close to the simple dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 18.9N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 19.4N 38.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 20.2N 40.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 21.3N 42.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 22.7N 44.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 24.3N 45.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 25.8N 46.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 27.3N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 27.5N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-10 22:31:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 10 the center of Rene was located near 18.9, -36.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rene Public Advisory Number 15
2020-09-10 22:31:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 102031 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 ...RENE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 36.8W ABOUT 865 MI...1395 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 36.8 West. Rene is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Rene is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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