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Summary for Tropical Storm Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-11 22:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 11 the center of Rene was located near 20.7, -41.1 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rene Public Advisory Number 19
2020-09-11 22:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 112051 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 ...RENE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 41.1W ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 41.1 West. Rene is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northwest followed by a turn toward the north-northwest is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, but a weakening trend will likely begin by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-09-11 22:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 112051 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-09-11 22:51:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 112050 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 41.1W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 41.1W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 40.6W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.7N 42.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.3N 44.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.9N 46.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.4N 47.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.0N 47.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 26.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 25.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 41.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-09-11 22:50:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 112050 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 Paulette inconveniently fell in a gap between all three ASCAT passes this morning, so we haven't gotten any better handle on the cyclone's intensity since last evening's pass. However, Dvorak classifications have not budged, so maintaining the initial intensity of 55 kt seems sound. In addition, although an AMSR microwave pass from around 17 UTC still showed the system being sheared, it also revealed a ragged mid-level eye feature. Since the shear is expected to abate to less than 10 kt by 48 hours, Paulette is likely to intensify, possibly significantly so, and it is now forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday. The intensification trend is expected to continue through day 4, and Paulette has the potential to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes its closest approach to Bermuda on Monday. Paulette's forecast peak intensity (on day 4) has been nudged up slightly, lying near the SHIPS and HCCA guidance, but still a little below the latest HWRF simulation. Paulette has picked up some speed and is now moving toward the northwest (310 degrees) at 11 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed since this morning. Paulette should maintain a motion toward the northwest or west-northwest during the next 2 to 3 days to the south of a weakening subtropical ridge. By day 3, a longwave trough is forecast to move across the northeastern United States, eroding the ridge eastward, and causing Paulette to recurve sharply toward the north and northeast in the vicinity of Bermuda on Monday. After that time, Paulette is forecast to become embedded in the mid-latitude flow and accelerate northeastward toward the north Atlantic. The spread in the track guidance has continued to tighten up, which increases the confidence in the official track forecast. The updated forecast has been shifted slightly westward around the time that Paulette will be near Bermuda, and it is embedded among the usually-reliable GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA model solutions. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane during the next couple of days and make its closest approach to the island on Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming more likely, and a hurricane watch could be required for the island tonight or early Saturday. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 24.6N 53.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 25.9N 55.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 27.5N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 28.7N 59.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 29.8N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 31.1N 64.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 32.6N 65.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 36.0N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 39.0N 56.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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