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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 11

2021-10-12 22:46:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 385 WTPZ31 KNHC 122046 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS PAMELA HAS WEAKENED... ...RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED WHILE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 109.3W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, in this case within the next 12 hours, producing conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 109.3 West. Pamela is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected to occur soon, followed by a faster northeastward motion tonight into Wednesday morning. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, and make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. However, restrengthening is forecast overnight, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane again before it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico Wednesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. Tropical storm conditions, primarily in gusts, are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur this afternoon and evening. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durango, and northern Nayarit...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will begin to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Pamela Public Advisory Number 10A

2021-10-12 19:43:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 121743 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 1200 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING PAMELA... ...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 109.4W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, in this case within the next 18 hours, producing conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 18 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 18 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pamela was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 109.4 West. Pamela is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion should continue this afternoon, followed by a faster northeastward motion tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, and make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected this afternoon. Steady strengthening is forecast tonight and early Wednesday, and Pamela could be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico Wednesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in flash and urban flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will begin to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Pamela Public Advisory Number 10

2021-10-12 16:42:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 121442 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Pamela Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 ...PAMELA FORECAST TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL... ...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 108.9W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, in this case within the next 18 hours, producing conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 18 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 18 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pamela was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 108.9 West. Pamela is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion should continue this morning, followed by a faster northeastward motion by this afternoon or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, and make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico early Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in flash and urban flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will begin to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Pamela Public Advisory Number 9A

2021-10-12 13:46:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 600 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 121146 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 600 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 ...PAMELA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 109.0W ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pamela was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 109.0 West. Pamela is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion should continue today, followed by a faster northeastward motion by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, and make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico early Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will begin to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Pamela Public Advisory Number 9

2021-10-12 10:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 120833 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Pamela Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 ...PAMELA BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 108.9W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Isla Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pamela was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 108.9 West. Pamela is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion should continue today, followed by a faster northeastward motion by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, and make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico early Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will begin to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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