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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 6
2021-10-11 16:59:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 111459 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 ...PAMELA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 108.1W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya southward to Escuinapa. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Bahia Tempehuaya northward to Altata, and also from Escuinapa southward to San Blas, including all the Isla Marias archipelago. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for extreme southern Baja California Sur from Los Barilles southward to Cabo San Lucas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to San Blas * Isla Marias * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required tonight for portions of the current Watch areas by this afternoon or evening. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 108.1 West. Pamela is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is forecast to occur tonight into Tuesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and make landfall on west-central mainland Mexico Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane before it reaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas by Tuesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango... 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur... 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 5
2021-10-11 10:31:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 110831 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 ...PAMELA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY... ...HURRICANE WATCHES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 107.6W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southern Baja California del Sur, Sinaloa, Durango and Nayarit should monitor the progress of Pamela. Watches will likely be issued for a portion of those states later this morning. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 107.6 West. Pamela is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected today. A turn to the northwest and then north is forecast to occur late today into Tuesday, followed by a faster northeast motion by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and make landfall on west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane before it reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Wednesday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 3
2021-10-10 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 102038 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PAMELA... ...FORECAST TO IMPACT A PORTION OF THE MEXICO COAST BY MIDWEEK AS A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 105.9W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southern portions of Baja California del Sur and in west-central mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Pamela. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 105.9 West. Pamela is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion at a slower forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn to the northwest and then north is forecast to occur late Monday into Tuesday, followed by a turn to the northeast by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and approach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next few days and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2021-10-10 16:40:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 101440 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...COULD IMPACT A PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST BY MIDWEEK AS A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 104.7W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 104.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion at a slower forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn to the northwest and then north is forecast to occur Monday into Tuesday, followed by a turn to the northeast by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the system will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Tuesday night and approach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next few days and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2021-10-10 10:52:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 100851 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC... ...STRENGTHENING FORECAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 102.9W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 102.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A gradual slowdown in forward motion with a turn to the northwest is anticipated over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next several days and the depression could be near hurricane intensity by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
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