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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-08-19 16:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 791 FONT13 KNHC 191435 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 12(33) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 9(26) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 5(22) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 5(23) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 5(27) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 4(26) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 5(32) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) 4(32) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 3(27) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 20(33) 5(38) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 19(43) 4(47) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 1(18) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 18(66) 3(69) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 13(32) 3(35) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 20(52) 4(56) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) 2(23) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) 2(24) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 13(24) 3(27) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) 3(28) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 15(30) 4(34) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 2(17) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 16(52) 3(55) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 2(21) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 2(24) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 12(30) 2(32) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 2(18) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 2(16) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) 1(18) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17) 1(18) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) 1(16) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 1(12) 1(13) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 15
2021-08-19 16:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 191435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...HENRI STILL MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 70.5W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 70.5 West. Henri is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Friday, followed by an acceleration toward the north and north-northeast Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri will remain well offshore of the east coast of the United States over the next couple of days, but it is forecast to be near southern New England on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Henri is forecast to intensify into a hurricane on Friday with additional strengthening predicted to occur this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this week and this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-08-19 16:34:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 191434 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 70.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 70.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 70.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 29.7N 71.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.4N 72.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.9N 72.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.3N 70.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.6N 70.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 41.6N 69.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 42.3N 67.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 70.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Henri Graphics
2021-08-19 10:55:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Aug 2021 08:55:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Aug 2021 09:35:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-08-19 10:54:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190854 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM AST Thu Aug 19 2021 Compared to microwave images from earlier on Wednesday, GMI microwave data from last evening revealed that Henri's structure had deteriorated somewhat, with convection on the west side of the mid-level eye having mostly dissipated. This degradation is likely the result of strong deep-layer shear and dry air in the mid levels. Satellite intensity estimates have either remained steady or decreased a bit, and Henri's initial intensity is therefore held at 60 kt. This value is supported by two evening scatterometer passes, which had peak winds of 52 kt and 57 kt. The GMI and ASCAT data revealed that the center is slightly farther south than previously estimated, and Henri has been moving south of due west, or 260/8 kt. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes toward the Ohio Valley, and global models are in agreement that this trough will cut off over the central Appalachians in about 48 hours. As a result, the ridge currently steering Henri westward is expected to relocate over the northern Gulf coast, with the cut-off low causing Henri to accelerate northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by late Friday through Sunday. Then, mid-level ridging over Quebec is likely to cause Henri to slow down considerably in the vicinity of southeastern New England or the adjacent offshore waters by Monday. The latest suite of deterministic track models have much less spread compared to on Wednesday, with fairly good agreement on the scenario described above. However, both the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles continue to show a wider assortment of solutions, with stronger storms tending to move closer to the U.S. coast and weaker storms moving farther offshore. With the tight clustering of the current guidance, the trajectory of the new NHC track forecast was not changed much from the previous iteration, although it is a little faster during the time that Henri accelerates to the north. The biggest point here is that it's still too soon to know exactly how close Henri's center will get to the coast of New England. The north-northeasterly shear affecting Henri is not expected to abate for another 24-36 hours. Once the shear does decrease, however, warm waters should foster strengthening, up until Sunday when Henri is expected to move north of the Gulf Stream. An increase in southerly shear and Henri's slow motion over the colder waters off New England should then cause weakening on days 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast is a little below the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, which are being influenced by the seemingly over-aggressive HWRF and COAMPS-TC models, and this new forecast is very similar to the previous prediction. Key Messages: 1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S. late this weekend and early next week, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada remains a distinct possibility. Interests in these areas should closely follow the progress of Henri and check for updates to the forecast. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 29.5N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 29.5N 70.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 29.9N 72.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 35.7N 71.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 38.2N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 41.1N 69.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 42.0N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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