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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2021-08-17 22:39:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 172039 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 6(14) 1(15) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)

2021-08-17 22:39:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HENRI STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 17 the center of Henri was located near 30.4, -64.2 with movement WSW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 8

2021-08-17 22:39:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 565 WTNT33 KNHC 172039 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 ...HENRI STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 64.2W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 64.2 West. Henri is moving toward the west-southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A faster motion toward the west is forecast by tonight, followed by a motion to the west-northwest or northwest by late Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda through tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, followed by little change in strength through Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible today across Bermuda and the nearby waters, particularly to the south of the island. SURF: Swells generated by Henri are expected to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells could increase along the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts by the end of the week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 8

2021-08-17 22:39:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 564 WTNT23 KNHC 172039 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 64.2W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 64.2W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 64.2W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 30.3N 65.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 30.2N 67.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.2N 68.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.3N 70.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 31.0N 71.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 32.0N 71.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 35.5N 69.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 39.1N 65.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 64.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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