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Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-18 01:40:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI BEGINNING TO MOVE A BIT FASTER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST... As of 8:00 PM AST Tue Aug 17 the center of Henri was located near 30.2, -64.5 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 8A
2021-08-18 01:40:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 172340 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 800 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 ...HENRI BEGINNING TO MOVE A BIT FASTER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 64.5W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 64.5 West. Henri is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (8 km/h). A somewhat faster motion toward the west is forecast by tomorrow, followed by a motion to the west-northwest or northwest by late Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda later tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, followed by little change in strength through Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible tonight across Bermuda and the nearby waters, particularly to the south of the island. SURF: Swells generated by Henri are expected to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells could increase along the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts by the end of the week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Storm Henri Graphics
2021-08-18 01:40:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 23:40:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 21:35:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Henri Graphics
2021-08-17 22:41:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 20:41:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 21:35:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-08-17 22:40:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 172040 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 Henri appears to be gaining strength. Satellite images show banding features becoming increasingly curved, especially on the east side of the system, and an eye feature has been occasionally seen in radar images from Bermuda. The upper-level outflow is also well established to the north and east of the center. The center itself is estimated to be located near the western edge of the convection, but it is possible that a new center is forming farther east. The initial intensity is raised to 55 kt following the Dvorak classification from TAFB. The initial wind radii has been expanded outward based on an earlier ASCAT pass. The tropical storm appears to have slowed down, and the latest initial motion estimate is 255/2 kt. A subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic is building eastward to the north of Henri, and this feature should steer the storm westward at a slightly faster pace during the next two to three days. After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken and shift farther east as a cut off low or negatively-tilted trough develops over the northeast U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause Henri to turn northeastward between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S in the 72-120 h period. There is a fair amount of spread in exactly when and where Henri makes this turn and the GFS and EC ensembles have some members not far offshore of New England and Atlantic Canada. Overall, the guidance has shifted westward again this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly from days 3 to 5. The northwesterly shear currently affecting Henri is subsiding, which should allow the storm to gain a little more strength tonight. However, a round of moderate northerly shear is expected to setup over Henri on Wednesday and Thursday and that will likely temporarily end the opportunity for strengthening. Although this shear would typically cause some weakening, the combination of warm SSTs and increasing mid-level moisture could offset the negative influences of the shear. By Friday and over the weekend, the shear is expected to lessen again and since the other environmental factors are predicted to remain favorable for the storm, strengthening is shown from days 3-5. This forecast is above the previous one, and lies fairly close to the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 30.4N 64.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 30.3N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 30.2N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 30.2N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 30.3N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 31.0N 71.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 32.0N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 35.5N 69.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 39.1N 65.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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