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Summary for Tropical Storm Sam (AT3/AL182021)
2021-09-23 22:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SAM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...RAPID INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 23 the center of Sam was located near 11.1, -39.7 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sam Public Advisory Number 5
2021-09-23 22:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 232051 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sam Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 ...SAM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...RAPID INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 39.7W ABOUT 1635 MI...2635 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sam was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 39.7 West. Sam is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a general west to west-northwest motion is expected to continue over the next several days, with a gradual slowdown in forward motion. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast during the next several days. Sam is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow morning and could become a major hurricane by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-09-23 22:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 232051 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Storm Sam Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-09-23 22:50:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 232050 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 39.7W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 39.7W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 39.1W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.5N 41.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 11.9N 44.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 12.3N 46.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.6N 47.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.1N 48.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.7N 50.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 15.2N 52.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 17.5N 55.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 39.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-23 19:53:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 231753 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Sam, located about 1700 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of Odette, is located a little more than 600 miles west-northwest of the westernmost Azores. While showers and thunderstorms remain limited near the low, only a small increase in this activity could result in the formation of a subtropical or tropical cyclone while it moves generally southward over marginally warmer waters during the next day or so. Strong upper-level winds are expected to develop over the system beginning tomorrow, which should then limit further development. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A surface trough of low pressure has developed in association with a large area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. This feature is interacting with an upper-level trough, and some tropical or subtropical development could occur in the next day or two as this feature moves generally north-northwestward. Strong upper-level winds should prohibit further development by this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by the end of this weekend. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far east Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Sam are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Sam are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Papin
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