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Tropical Depression Eighteen Public Advisory Number 3
2021-09-23 10:34:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 230834 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.5N 36.4W ABOUT 1860 MI...2995 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 36.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A slower motion toward the west-northwest is expected Friday night and continuing into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today. It is then forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-09-23 10:34:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 230834 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-23 10:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 230833 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 36.4W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 36.4W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 35.7W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.8N 38.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.3N 40.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 11.9N 43.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 12.5N 45.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.0N 46.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.7N 48.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 15.0N 50.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 16.9N 53.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 36.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-23 07:20:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 230520 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 22 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad and elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system during the next day or so, if any, is likely to be slow. After that time, this system is forecast to move over cool waters and into an environment of stable air and strong upper-level winds, which should inhibit further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-23 07:18:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 230518 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Rose, located about 1200 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, and on Tropical Depression Eighteen, located about 2000 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the remnants of Peter, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of Odette, is located about 600 miles west-northwest of the westernmost Azores. Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little near the low, and it could become a subtropical or tropical cyclone while it moves generally southward over marginally warmer waters during the next couple of days. Strong upper-level winds are expected to develop over the system this weekend, which should limit its development. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eighteen are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eighteen are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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