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Tropical Storm Sam Public Advisory Number 4
2021-09-23 16:55:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 231455 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sam Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SAM, THE 18TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON... ...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.9N 38.1W ABOUT 1745 MI...2805 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sam was located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 38.1 West. Sam is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days, but with a gradual slowdown in forward motion. Recent sallite wind data indicates maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and Sam is now forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and be near major hurricane intensity by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Sam Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-09-23 16:54:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 245 WTNT23 KNHC 231454 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 38.1W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 38.1W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 37.4W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 11.3N 40.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 11.9N 42.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.3N 45.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 12.7N 46.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 13.2N 48.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.7N 49.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 15.3N 52.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 17.4N 55.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 38.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-23 13:49:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 231149 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eighteen, located about 1800 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose, located more than 1300 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of Odette, is located a little more than 600 miles west-northwest of the westernmost Azores. While showers and thunderstorms remain limited near the low, only a small increase in this activity could result in the formation of a subtropical or tropical cyclone while it moves generally southward over marginally warmer waters during the next day or two. Strong upper-level winds are expected to develop over the system by this weekend, which should then limit further development. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by the end of the weekend. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far east Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eighteen are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eighteen are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Papin
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-23 13:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 231132 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Sep 23 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become less organized since yesterday. The system is forecast to move over cool waters and into an environment of stable air and strong upper-level winds during the next day or so, and its chances of development are decreasing. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
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eastern
Summary for Tropical Depression Eighteen (AT3/AL182021)
2021-09-23 10:34:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 23 the center of Eighteen was located near 10.5, -36.4 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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