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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 4A
2021-08-26 19:38:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 261737 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 100 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT NORA'S WIND FIELD HAS GROWN IN SIZE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 101.0W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nora. Warnings or additional watches will likely be required later today and tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 101.0 West. Nora is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this evening. A motion toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast to begin overnight and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico on Friday and be very near the coast on Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane by late Saturday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that Nora is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Saturday and Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning Friday or Friday night. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-26 19:17:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 261716 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Nine, located a couple of hundred miles southeast of the Cayman Islands. An elongated area of low pressure located over the central Atlantic about 600 miles east of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend. The system is expected to move slowly eastward during the next day or two, but a faster northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to turn northward early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-26 16:56:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 261456 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Early morning visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure over west-central Caribbean Sea has become better defined. There has also been an increase in the organization of the associated convective activity, and based on consensus Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from TAFB and SAB, advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in agreement with the subjective satellite estimates. The official reporting station in Kingston, Jamaica, has reported sustained winds of 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt during the past couple of hours. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the system later this afternoon to provide more information on the system's structure and intensity. The depression is moving northwestward or 325/11 kt, however the initial motion is a bit more uncertain than normal since the low- level center has only recently formed. The cyclone is forecast to move steadily northwestward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge centered over the western Atlantic. This track should bring the center near or over western Cuba late Friday, over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday night and Saturday, and have the center approach the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement, however the average NHC track forecast error at day 4 is around 175 miles, so users should not focus on the details of the long range track forecast. Some shifts in the track are likely until the system consolidates and becomes better defined. The NHC track is near the various consensus model aids and is in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean. The depression will be moving over the high ocean heat content waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next 24-36 hours. This, in combination with low vertical wind shear and a moist environment, should allow for steady strengthening. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, and could approach hurricane strength as it passes near or over western Cuba. Once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions are expected to be conducive for additional strengthening, and rapid intensification is explicitly shown in the NHC forecast between 48 and 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast brings the system near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. This forecast is supported by the HWRF and CTCI models, and the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global model guidance, which all significantly deepen the cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a strengthening tropical cyclone will be moving over the Gulf this weekend. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the Cayman Islands tonight and western Cuba Friday and Friday night, with dangerous storm surge possible in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, in areas of onshore flow. 2. The system is expected to produce life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth and northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. 3. This system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast at or near major hurricane intensity on Sunday, although the forecast uncertainty is larger than usual since the system is just forming. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday along the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to the upper Texas coast, with the greatest risk along the coast of Louisiana. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 16.9N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 18.2N 80.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 20.3N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 22.5N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 29/0000Z 26.1N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 27.7N 90.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/1200Z 33.7N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Nora Graphics
2021-08-26 16:49:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 14:49:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 14:49:00 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-26 16:47:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 373 WTPZ44 KNHC 261447 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Satellite images show that deep convection embedded within the sprawling circulation of the depression is gradually becoming better organized, and 91-GHz SSMIS data from 1117 UTC showed improved curvature to the bands, especially within the western semicircle. Subjective Dvorak estimates are now a consensus T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, while objective numbers from UW-CIMSS are running a little higher. Therefore, the depression is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Nora with 35-kt winds. The microwave data, as well as first-light visible imagery, suggest that the center may be consolidating or re-forming a little farther east of where we had been tracking it. Nora is moving slowly toward the west-northwest (296/6 kt), steered by a strong mid-level ridge located over the southern United States. This ridge is expected to dissolve over the next 24 hours as a shortwave trough moves across the Rocky Mountains, allowing Nora to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest through the weekend. Most of the differences among the track models still appear to be related to the initial location of Nora's center. The GFS continues to show the system having multiple low-level vortices, with a dominant one forming well to the east and moving inland along the southwestern coast of Mexico as early as late Friday, and many more GEFS ensemble members show a similar scenario compared to yesterday. The HWRF and HMON are also in the camp of bringing Nora's center inland over Mexico. Other models, including the ECMWF (and most of its ensemble members), the UKMET, and the consensus aids, still show Nora's center staying just offshore. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward, primarily due to the adjustment of the initial position, and shows Nora's center very close to the coast of southwestern Mexico over the weekend. If Nora's center re-forms, then additional shifts in the track forecast will be likely. By early next week, Nora is likely to head towards Baja California Sur, but here is still a lot of uncertainty on the exact track at that time. Moderate northeasterly vertical shear continues to affect Nora, but this shear is expected to decrease to 10 kt or less in 36-48 hours. In addition, the storm will be moving over warm waters of 28-29 degrees Celsius and through an environment of high mid-level moisture. These factors should allow for continued strengthening, although the system's large size could be one limiting factor in how fast that strengthening happens. Nora is expected to be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southwestern Mexico in 2-3 days. However, the intensity forecast, especially on days 3-5, hinges on whether or not the center moves inland. If it does not, Nora will have greater opportunity to strengthen while it heads toward the Baja California Peninsula. Since several of the intensity models assume a scenario where Nora moves inland, the NHC intensity forecast more closely follows the no-land versions of the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS models through day 4 to be consistent with what is shown in the track forecast. Given the high uncertainty in Nora's future track, and its roughly shore-parallel path, a larger-than-normal hurricane watch area has been issued for the southwestern coast of Mexico by the Mexican government. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by late Saturday while it approaches the coast of southwestern Mexico, and hurricane and tropical storm watches are now in effect for portions of that area. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides could occur. 3. Nora is forecast to be near the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 12.5N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 13.2N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 14.3N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 15.7N 103.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 17.4N 104.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 20.2N 106.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 22.3N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 24.0N 110.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
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