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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-25 01:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 242332 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave currently located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low if it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 1000 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Little development of this system is expected during the next day or two due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-24 19:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 241742 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave currently located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low if it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic almost 1000 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Little development of this system is expected during the next day or two due while it moves northwestward at about 15 mph over marginally conducive ocean temperatures and is affected by strong upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Another tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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atlantic
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-24 19:40:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 241740 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Marty, located more than 500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that the low pressure system located less than 200 miles offshore of the southeastern coast of Mexico has become a little better defined since yesterday. Shower and thunderstorm activity is also beginning to show some signs of organization, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph this week, remaining offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Marty Graphics
2021-08-24 16:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Aug 2021 14:34:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Aug 2021 14:34:01 GMT
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Tropical Depression Marty Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-24 16:33:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241433 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Marty Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 There has been no significant deep convection within 100 nmi of Marty's center since about 0600 UTC. The cyclone's cloud pattern now consists of some mid-level clouds and mostly low-level cold-air stratocumulus clouds. The current intensity of 30 kt is based on a unanimous Dvorak satellite classification of T1.5/2.5 (25 kt/35 kt) from TAFB and SAB, which has resulted in Marty being downgraded to a tropical depression. Due to the cyclone's future track remaining over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures, coupled with additional entrainment of stable low clouds, Marty is now forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low later today. The new NHC intensity forecast closely follows the trends of the intensity consensus models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA. The initial motion remains westward, or 270/10 kt. The strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the weakening shallow cyclone is expected to keep Marty on a generally westward track over the next 36 hours or so, followed by a west-southwestward motion thereafter until the cyclone dissipates. The new official forecast track lies near the extreme southern edge of the model guidance envelope, owing to the models' slight poleward bias noted over the past 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 20.6N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 20.6N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1200Z 20.6N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 20.6N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 20.5N 126.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0000Z 20.2N 128.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z 19.6N 130.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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