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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-26 02:20:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 260019 CCA TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021 Corrected 48-h formation chance to 60 percent in first paragraph For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical wave currently located north of Colombia. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form late this week or over the weekend. The system is expected to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, where conditions are expected to be favorable for additional development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible through the weekend in portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition, this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 650 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-26 01:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
671 ABPZ20 KNHC 252332 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Aug 25 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Fourteen-E, located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Graphics
2021-08-25 22:51:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Aug 2021 20:51:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Aug 2021 20:51:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-25 22:50:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 252050 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 Scatterometer data from a few hours ago revealed that a small but sufficiently well-defined circulation has formed on the western end of a broader circulation which lies a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Although the system is still in its formative stages and banding features are not readily apparent, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have been a consensus T2.0/30 kt since this morning. The system is therefore now designated as a 30-kt tropical depression, although the scatterometer data suggested that its winds are already very near tropical storm force. The depression's surface center apparently formed a little south of the vorticity maximum we have been tracking over the past day or so. Therefore, the initial motion is very uncertain but is estimated to be westward, or 275/7 kt. The evolution of the steering pattern is fairly consistent among the models. A strong mid-tropospheric high over the U.S. Southern Plains is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days, causing the depression to turn from a westward motion now, to a west-northwest motion tonight, to a northwest and north-northwest motion by Friday and Saturday. On this track, most of the models bring the center of the system near but still offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. The GFS has been a notable exception, bringing the system inland over southwestern Mexico in about 3 days. However, that model shows a complex interaction with multiple low-level centers that consolidate farther east, and most of the GEFS ensemble members remain offshore with the other deterministic models. As a result, this first NHC official forecast also shows a track remaining offshore and is a little to the left of the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. Moderate easterly to northeasterly shear is likely to continue over the depression for the next day or so, which would temper any fast strengthening in the short term. Still, the system will be moving over warm waters of 28-29 degrees Celsius over the next few days, and lower shear in 2-3 days should allow it to strengthen to a hurricane by the weekend as it passes near the southwestern coast of Mexico and approaches the southern part of the Baja California peninsula. The intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement during the first 2 days, but there is much more spread after that time, likely related to the degree of land interaction. The NHC intensity forecast is near the consensus aids during the first 3 days and then a little bit above them on days 4 and 5, lying between the HWRF and HMON models at those forecast times. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm tonight and be near hurricane intensity by Saturday. While the core of the storm is currently expected to remain offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds and heavy rainfall, possibly resulting in flash floods and mudslides, could affect portions of that area over the next several days. 2. The system is expected to pass near the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane Sunday and Monday, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area early next week. Given the uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts, but interests in this area should monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 11.7N 99.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 12.0N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 12.8N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 13.6N 103.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 14.7N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 16.2N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 18.0N 106.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 21.1N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 22.7N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen-E (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-25 22:50:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 11.7, -99.4 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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