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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-11 01:27:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 102327 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A non-tropical low pressure area located about 75 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Recent radar and satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of the low has become less defined since this morning. Dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent any further development of this system while it moves slowly northward or north-northeastward through Monday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are still possible over portions of the North Caroling Outer Banks through Monday and information on these hazards can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Office. Additional information on this low pressure system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave located about a little more than 500 miles east- southeast of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive, and some limited development could occur during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. After that time, strong upper-level winds are expected to limit further development. The disturbance is forecast to approach the central and northern Lesser Antilles by late Monday and early Tuesday. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and across the Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands on Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers over portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to limit any development over the next day or so, but environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual development of the system when it is located near the southeastern Bahamas around midweek. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Brown
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-11 01:11:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 102311 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Oct 10 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Pamela, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of southwestern Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Pamela are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Pamela are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Pamela Graphics
2021-10-10 22:41:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Oct 2021 20:41:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Oct 2021 20:41:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-10-10 22:39:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 211 FOPZ11 KNHC 102039 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 2100 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 56(63) 2(65) X(65) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 59(65) 1(66) X(66) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 1(30) X(30) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) X(21) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) X(27) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 41(66) X(66) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) X(32) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 28(34) 2(36) X(36) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 13(61) X(61) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 13(27) X(27) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 57(72) 17(89) 1(90) X(90) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 24(62) X(62) X(62) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 18(35) X(35) X(35) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) 34(61) 4(65) X(65) X(65) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Pamela (EP1/EP162021)
2021-10-10 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PAMELA... ...FORECAST TO IMPACT A PORTION OF THE MEXICO COAST BY MIDWEEK AS A HURRICANE... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 the center of Pamela was located near 15.5, -105.9 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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