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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2021-10-12 13:52:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 121152 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Oct 12 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Pamela, located less than 300 miles southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2021-10-12 13:10:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 121110 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave located near the Windward Islands has continued to become less organized this morning and development of the system is not expected. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas. Development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur during the next couple of days due to unfavorable environmental conditions. The system is expected to interact with a front by the end of the week and further development is unlikely after that time. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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Summary for Tropical Storm Pamela (EP1/EP162021)

2021-10-12 07:35:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...PAMELA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THERE TONIGHT... As of 12:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 the center of Pamela was located near 18.8, -108.9 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 8A

2021-10-12 07:35:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 120534 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 1200 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 ...PAMELA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THERE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 108.9W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Isla Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 108.9 West. Pamela is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north is forecast to occur later this morning, followed by a faster northeastward motion by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, and make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane later this morning, and be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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