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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 7A

2021-10-12 01:52:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 600 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 112352 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 600 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 108.8W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya southward to Escuinapa. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Bahia Tempehuaya northward to Altata, and also from Escuinapa southward to Cabo Corrientes, including all of the Islas Marias. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Isla Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 108.8 West. Pamela is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north is forecast to occur later tonight into Tuesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday and Tuesday night, and make landfall in southwestern mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane overnight and a major hurricane on Tuesday. Pamela is forecast remain a major hurricane until it reaches the coast of Mexico on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late Tuesday night or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur by Tuesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Papin

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2021-10-12 01:47:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 112347 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Oct 11 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Pamela, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Papin

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2021-10-12 01:20:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 112319 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave associated with a weak area of low pressure is located less than 200 miles east of the Windward Islands. While this system continues to produce showers and thunderstorms primarily east of its center, strong upper-level winds will likely prohibit further development on Tuesday. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Another tropical wave moving over Hispaniola is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While environmental conditions are not expected to support development of this system over the next day or two, some gradual development is possible starting on Wednesday when the system nears the southeastern Bahamas and begins moving slowly eastward. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin

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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 7

2021-10-11 22:56:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 112056 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Entrainment of dry mid-level air along with some modest north-northwesterly mid-level shear has caused Pamela's low-level circulation to become slightly exposed just northwest of the somewhat ragged inner-core convection. Upper-level outflow, however, has improved in all quadrants, with a narrow equatorward outflow channel having developed in the eastern semicircle since the previous advisory. Pamela's intensity was increased to 60 kt at 1800 UTC based on satellite current-intensity estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and T3.7/59 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. However, 60 kt might be a little generous at the 2100 UTC advisory time, given that the low-level center has recently become partially exposed. The motion estimate is northwestward or 320/06 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. This current slow northwestward motion should continue this afternoon and evening as Pamela approaches the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. Later tonight, the cyclone is expected to turn slowly northward, followed by a faster northeastward motion by Tuesday night as Pamela gets caught up in moderate southwesterly flow ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest and west. This developing flow pattern is depicted quite well by all of the global and regional models, and should result in Pamela accelerating northeastward on Wednesday right up until the storm makes landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico. The new NHC forecast track has been shifted a little to the right again, and is close to the middle of the tightly packed TCVE, GFEX, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE consensus track-model envelope. The global and regional models are in very good agreement that the current slight southeastward tilt to the vortex column should abate within the next 6 hours or so, along with the dry mid-level air mixing out. As a result, deep convection should re-fire near the center later tonight, resulting in the development of an eyewall, which will create the necessary chimney effect to allow Pamela to resume its earlier rapid intensification trend. In fact, all of the models now show strengthening right up until the cyclone makes landfall on Wednesday due to the upper-level outflow pattern expanding, along with the development of poleward and equatorward outflow channels by late Tuesday. The new official intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous advisory, and lies near the upper-end of the intensity guidance. Pamela is still expected to become a dangerous major hurricane prior to landfall. After landfall occurs, rapid weakening is forecast due to the cyclone moving over the rugged terrain of west-central Mexico. However, the higher elevations of north-central Mexico could still receive tropical-storm force winds after Pamela moves well inland. Furthermore, deep moisture associated with Pamela will gradually overspread much of north-central and northeastern Mexico late on Wednesday, and then move into southern and central Texas on Thursday, enhancing the rainfall potential in those areas. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Pamela on Tuesday during the late morning and early afternoon to provide a better estimate of the cyclone's intensity. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are possible within the Hurricane Watch area. Residents in this area should monitor the progress of Pamela and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Pamela is expected to pass near or south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane Tuesday night and early Wednesday, and tropical-storm conditions are possible within the Tropical storm Watch area. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur Tuesday and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 4. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in flash and urban flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 17.2N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 18.3N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 20.0N 108.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 22.0N 107.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 24.3N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 14/0600Z 27.4N 102.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 14/1800Z 31.2N 97.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

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